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Prediction of Monthly Fluoride Content in Tigris River using SARIMA Model in R Software
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The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values for fluoride concentration at the six locations, Al-Karakh, East Tigris, Al-Wathbah, AL-Karamah, Al-Rashid and Al-Wahda WTP intakes, was 0.93, 0.82, 0.86, 0.90, 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Model verification results indicated that the model forecasting outputs rationally estimated the actual monthly fluoride content in the selected locations.

Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Prediction of the number of births in the Governorate of Basra for the period (1998-2050)
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The adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 13 2022
Journal Name
Computation
A Pattern-Recognizer Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of New Crescent Visibility in Iraq
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Various theories have been proposed since in last century to predict the first sighting of a new crescent moon. None of them uses the concept of machine and deep learning to process, interpret and simulate patterns hidden in databases. Many of these theories use interpolation and extrapolation techniques to identify sighting regions through such data. In this study, a pattern recognizer artificial neural network was trained to distinguish between visibility regions. Essential parameters of crescent moon sighting were collected from moon sight datasets and used to build an intelligent system of pattern recognition to predict the crescent sight conditions. The proposed ANN learned the datasets with an accuracy of more than 72% in comp

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 28 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal
Comparism Between Transvaginal Cervical Length Measurement and Digital Examination in Prediction of Imminent preterm Delivery
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BACKGROUND: Preterm labour is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality, so it is important to predict preterm delivery using the clinical examination of the cervix and uterine contraction frequency. New markers for the prediction of preterm birth have been developed such as transvaginal ultrasound measurement of cervical length as this method is widely available. OBJECTIVE: To determine, whether transvaginal cervical length measurement predicts imminent preterm delivery better than digital cervical length measurement in women presented with preterm labour and intact membranes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two hundred women presented with preterm labour between 24 and 36+6 weeks of gestation were included in this study. All women subjecte

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Wellbore Breakouts Prediction from Different Rock Failure Criteria
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One of the wellbore instability problems in vertical wells are breakouts in Zubair oilfield. Breakouts, if exceeds its critical limits will produce problems such as loss circulation which will add to the non-productive time (NPT) thus increasing loss in costs and in total revenues. In this paper, three of the available rock failure criteria (Mohr-Coulomb, Mogi-Coulomb and Modified-Lade) are used to study and predict the occurrence of the breakouts. It is found that there is an increase over the allowable breakout limit in breakout width in Tanuma shaly formation and it was predicted using Mohr-Coulomb criterion. An increase in the pore pressure was predicted in Tanuma shaly formation, thus; a new mud weight and casing pr

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biodiversity Index value of benthic invertebrates' community in relation with variation of some environmental properties in Rivers Tigris and Diyala within Baghdad city.
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This study was carried out to determine the effects of some environmental variables on biodiversity index value of benthic invertebrates' community in samples that collected monthly from two adjacent sites nearby the confluence of Tigris and Diyala rivers within Baghdad city that’s from November 2007 - October 2008. Results showed differences in chemical and physical characteristics for each river. Where the annual averages of these characteristics in Rivers Tigris and Diyala respectively for: water temperature (20, 19) Cº, pH (8, 8), Dissolved oxygen DO(8,4 ) mg/l , EC(1152,2979)µc/cm , Turbidity (28,74) NTU, Total Hardness of CaCO3 (485,823)mg/l, and finally NO3 (4,6)mg/l. Concerning the biological groups, included types of Insect

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison of the Semiparametric Estimators model smoothing methods different using
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In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes  n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results  for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the

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Publication Date
Tue May 20 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The use of mathematical formulas to control river pollution Study area Diyala River within the city of Baquba
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Pollution of the aquatic environment and the depletion of the natural resource cause imbalance in the natural balance of the river environment and contributes to the deterioration of life and the killing of living organisms. Most of the old and modern cities and urban centers were set up close to the rivers because water enters the main lifeblood and all its facilities. The proximity of cities to rivers caused environmental problems resulting from the dumping of residues of these cities to a large and continuous, these wastes include all uses of the city (industrial, agricultural, residential and commercial) and others. The accumulation of these wastes inside the rivers water kills life and makes them unsuitable for various uses to bury

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Evaluation of the Effect of Topical Artemisia dracunculus Administration on Serum Levels of Selected Interleukins and Spleen Index in Imiquimod-Induced Psoriasis in Male Mice Compared to Clobetasol Propionate (Dermovate (R)) Ointment
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Psoriasis is a long-lasting autoimmune disease that is characterized by swollen skin patches. Normally, these skin patches are dark, swollen, itchy and scaly. The single application of the innate TLR7/8 ligand Imiquimod (IMQ) in mice easily induces a dermatitis that closely resembles human psoriasis, critically dependent on the axis of IL-23/IL-17. Artemisia dracunculus prepared as an ointment and has been used topically to mice before imiquimod application. The results of the current study showed that A. dracunculus ointment can significantly reduce psoriasis area and severity index in (A. dracunculus ointment + imiquimod group as compared with both control group and (vehicle ointment + imiquimod) group.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Degree of Availability of Design Thinking Indicators in the content of Arabic Language Curricula at the secondary stage in Syrian Arab Republic
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The study aimed to identify the degree of availability of design Thinking Indicators in The content of the Arabic Language Curricula at the secondary stage in the Syrian Arab Republic; to achieve the goal of the study. The researcher used the Descriptive Approach based on the analysis method according to the Cognitive Theory. The study tools consist of a list of Design Thinking Indicators and a Content Analysis Tool. The researcher completed the Validity and Reliability procedures for the tools. After applying them, the results of the study resulted in the following: Greater Interest than other sub-skills. The results also showed a Divergence of care for the sub-skills and the Difference in their recurrence rate, and the Omission of some

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 09 2022
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
A Semi-Empirical Equation based on the Strut-and-Tie Model for the Shear Strength Prediction of Deep Beams with Multiple Large Web Openings
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The behavior and shear strength of full-scale (T-section) reinforced concrete deep beams, designed according to the strut-and-tie approach of ACI Code-19 specifications, with various large web openings were investigated in this paper. A total of 7 deep beam specimens with identical shear span-to-depth ratios have been tested under mid-span concentrated load applied monotonically until beam failure. The main variables studied were the effects of width and depth of the web openings on deep beam performance. Experimental data results were calibrated with the strut-and-tie approach, adopted by ACI 318-19 code for the design of deep beams. The provided strut-and-tie design model in ACI 318-19 code provision was assessed and found to be u

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