The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values for fluoride concentration at the six locations, Al-Karakh, East Tigris, Al-Wathbah, AL-Karamah, Al-Rashid and Al-Wahda WTP intakes, was 0.93, 0.82, 0.86, 0.90, 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Model verification results indicated that the model forecasting outputs rationally estimated the actual monthly fluoride content in the selected locations.
In this paper, a mathematical model was built for the supply chain to reduce production, inventory, and transportation in Baghdad Company for Soft Drink. The linear programming method was used to solve this mathematical model. We reduced the cost of production by reduced the daily work hours, the company do not need the overtime hours to work at the same levels of production, and the costs of storage in the company's warehouses and agents' stores have been reduced by making use of the stock correctly, which guarantees reducing costs and preserving products from damage. The units transferred from the company were equal to the units demanded by the agents. The company's mathematical model also achieved profits by (84,663,769) by re
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Wastewater projects are one of the most important infrastructure projects, which require developing strategic plans to manage these projects. Most of the wastewater projects in Iraq don’t have a maintenance plan. This research aims to prepare the maintenance management plan (MMP) for wastewater projects. The objective of the research is to predict the cost and time of maintenance projects by building a model using ANN. The research sample included (15) completed projects in Wasit Governorate, where the researcher was able to obtain the data of these projects through the historical information of the Wasit Sewage Directorate. In this research artificial neural networks (ANN) technique was used to build two models (cost
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This Paper aims to plan the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) for one month at Diyala Public Company and with more than one goal for the decision-maker in a fuzzy environment. The fuzzy demand was forecasting using the fuzzy time series model. The fuzzy lead time for raw materials involved in the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) was addressed using the fuzzy inference matrix through the application of the matrix in Matlab, and since the decision-maker has more than one goal, so a mathematical model of goal programming was create, which aims to achieve two goals, the first is to reduce the total production costs of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) and th
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The cheif aim of the present investigation is to develop Leslie Gower type three species food chain model with prey refuge. The intra-specific competition among the predators is considered in the proposed model. Besides the logistic growth rate for the prey species, Sokol Howell functional response for predation is chosen for our model formulation. The behaviour of the model system thoroughly analyses near the biologically significant equilibria. The linear stability analysis of the equilibria is carried out in order to examine the response of the system. The present model system experiences Hopf bifurcation depending on the choice of suitable model parameters. Extensive numerical simulation reveals the validity of the proposed model.
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In this study, we made a comparison between LASSO & SCAD methods, which are two special methods for dealing with models in partial quantile regression. (Nadaraya & Watson Kernel) was used to estimate the non-parametric part ;in addition, the rule of thumb method was used to estimate the smoothing bandwidth (h). Penalty methods proved to be efficient in estimating the regression coefficients, but the SCAD method according to the mean squared error criterion (MSE) was the best after estimating the missing data using the mean imputation method
In this study is the phenomenon of desertification risk assessment in the Abu Ghraib area west of Baghdad/Iraq, which has an area of about (384.168 km 2), that the annual mean temperature is more than (22 C). Rainfall was low, ranging from the (200 mm) per year for Iraq and (2.82) mm per year of the study area* temperature is high and evaporation is also high (mm 7.73) per year*, so the climate in general of the dry type and the system of soil moisture is the kind of Aridic (Torric). To this study was to identify three indicators to monitor for the period from 2001-2005 using GIS and these indicators are (soil, groundwater and the nature of land use), using ArcGIS 9.1. The results showed that the risk of desertification was part of the leve
... Show MoreThis study aimed at comparing the performance of vertical, horizontal and hybrid subsurface flow systems in secondary treatment for the effluent wastewater from the primary basins at Al-Rustumia wastewater treatment plant, Baghdad, Iraq. The treatments were monitored for six weeks while the testsduration were from 4 to 12 September 2018 under continuous wastewater feeding for chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solid (TSS),ammonia-nitrogen(NH4-N) and phosphate (PO4-P) in comparison with FAO and USEPA standards for effluent discharge to evaluate the suitability of treated water for irrigation purposes. Among the systems planted with Phragmites Australia, the hybrid subsurface flow system which cons
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Two simple and sensitive spectrophotometric methods are proposed for the determination of amitriptyline in its pure form and in tablets. The first method is based on the formation of charge- transfer complex between amitriptyline as n-donor and tetracyano-ethylene (TCNE) as πacceptor. The product exhibit absorbance maximum at 470 nm in acetonitrile solvent (pH =9.0 ) . In the second method the absorbance of the ion- pair complex, which is formed between the soughted drug and bromocresol green (BCG), was measured at 415 nm at ( pH=3.5) . In addition to classical univariate optimization, modified simplex method (MSM) was applied in the optimization of the variable affecting the color producing reaction by a geometric simple
... Show MoreThe goal of this paper is to show the kinematic characteristics of gaseous stellar dynamics using scaling coefficient relationships (such as Tully-Fisher) in different spiral galaxies. We selected a sample of types of spiral morphology (116 early, 150 intermediate, and 146 late) from previous literature work, and used statistical software (statistic-win-program) to find out the associations of multiple factors under investigation, such as the main kinematic properties of the gaseous-stellar (mass, luminosity, rotational speed, and baryons) in different types of spiral galaxies. We concluded that there is a robust positive connection between Log Vrot.max.) and Log Mstar(B-V), as well as between Log Vrot.max. and Log Mbar (
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