The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values for fluoride concentration at the six locations, Al-Karakh, East Tigris, Al-Wathbah, AL-Karamah, Al-Rashid and Al-Wahda WTP intakes, was 0.93, 0.82, 0.86, 0.90, 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Model verification results indicated that the model forecasting outputs rationally estimated the actual monthly fluoride content in the selected locations.
In this paper an estimator of reliability function for the pareto dist. Of the first kind has been derived and then a simulation approach by Monte-Calro method was made to compare the Bayers estimator of reliability function and the maximum likelihood estimator for this function. It has been found that the Bayes. estimator was better than maximum likelihood estimator for all sample sizes using Integral mean square error(IMSE).
The aim of this paper is to describe an epidemic model when two SI-Type of diseases are transmitted vertically as well as horizontally through one population. The population contains two subclasses: susceptible and infectious, while the infectious are divided into three subgroups: Those infected by AIDS disease, HCV disease, and by both diseases. A nonlinear mathematical model for AIDS and HCV diseases is Suggested and analyzed. Both local and global stability for each feasible equilibrium point are determined theoretically by using the stability theory of differential equations, Routh-Hurwitz and Gershgorin theorem. Moreover, the numerical simulation was carried out on the model parameters in order to determine their impact on the disease
... Show MoreA 3D geological model is an essential step to reveal reservoir heterogeneity and reservoir properties distribution. In the present study, a three-dimensional geological model for the Mishrif reservoir was built based on data obtained from seven wells and core data. The methodology includes building a 3D grid and populating it with petrophysical properties such as (facies, porosity, water saturation, and net to gross ratio). The structural model was built based on a base contour map obtained from 2D seismic interpretation along with well tops from seven wells. A simple grid method was used to build the structural framework with 234x278x91 grid cells in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively, with lengths equal to 150 meters. The to
... Show MoreIn this paper, a harvested prey-predator model involving infectious disease in prey is considered. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution are discussed. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points are carried out. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The behavior of the system is simulated and bifurcation diagrams are obtained for different parameters. The results show that the existence of disease and harvesting can give rise to multiple attractors, including chaos, with variations in critical parameters.
This research aims to clarify the advantages of using the regression method as analytical procedure in the tax audit to reducing the examination cost , time, effort, human and material resources, and represents an applied study in the General Commission of taxes. In order to achieve its objectives the research has used in the theoretical side the descriptive approach (analytical), and in the practical side regression method has been applied to the research sample represented by the soft drinks company that is subject to the tax settlement for the year 2014, where the value of sales has been verified by using the regression method without conductinga comprehensive examination. The most important results of the research indicate that the r
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The study aimed to prepare a practical guide for procedures for auditing the strategies of municipal institutions in achieving sustainable development by adopting the idea of the audit matrix through which a classified report is prepared according to the dimensions of sustainable development, by preparing a specialized audit program for the purpose of auditing strategies for achieving sustainable development and emptying the results of the application of each of the paragraphs The program in the audit matrix that was prepared for the purpose of determining the impact of each observation and linkin
... Show MoreGroundwater is an essential source because of its high quality and continuous availability characterize this water resource. Therefore, the study of groundwater has required more attention. The present study aims to assess and manage groundwater quality's suitability for various purposes through the Geographical Information System GIS and the Water Quality Index WQI. The study area is located in the city of Baghdad in central Iraq, with an approximate area of 900 , data were collected from the relevant official departments representing the locations of 97 wells of groundwater in the study area for the year 2019, as it included physicochemical parameters such as pH, EC, TDS, Na, K, Mg, Ca, Cl, , and &nbs
... Show MoreIn this paper, the fuzzy logic and the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number were presented, as well as some properties of the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number and semi- parametric logistic regression model when using the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number. The output variable represents the dependent variable sometimes cannot be determined in only two cases (response, non-response)or (success, failure) and more than two responses, especially in medical studies; therefore so, use a semi parametric logistic regression model with the output variable (dependent variable) representing a trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number.
the model was estimated on simulati
... Show MoreThe absence of ecological perception in the local urbanization resulted in the lack of a clear conception of achieving sustainability in its simplest form in the urban reality and in the city of Baghdad in particular. The research assumes the possibility of achieving urban sustainability in Iraqi cities by applying the cities for the most effective methods to implemented ecological solutions and introducing appropriate urban planning tools and improve the living environment. The research focuses on the ability to define some aspects to achieve a sustainable local urban identity from global experiences. This was performed by proposing a scheduled theoretical framework, through which the features of sustainability can be extrapolated from the
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