The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values for fluoride concentration at the six locations, Al-Karakh, East Tigris, Al-Wathbah, AL-Karamah, Al-Rashid and Al-Wahda WTP intakes, was 0.93, 0.82, 0.86, 0.90, 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Model verification results indicated that the model forecasting outputs rationally estimated the actual monthly fluoride content in the selected locations.
In this paper, a compartmental differential epidemic model of COVID-19 pandemic transmission is constructed and analyzed that accounts for the effects of media coverage. The model can be categorized into eight distinct divisions: susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, quarantine class, infected individuals, isolated class, infectious material in the environment, media coverage, and recovered individuals. The qualitative analysis of the model indicates that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R0 is less than one. Conversely, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 is bigger than one. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine which
... Show MoreShell model and Hartree-Fock calculations have been adopted to study the elastic and inelastic electron scattering form factors for 25Mg nucleus. The wave functions for this nucleus have been utilized from the shell model using USDA two-body effective interaction for this nucleus with the sd shell model space. On the other hand, the SkXcsb Skyrme parameterization has been used within the Hartree-Fock method to get the single-particle potential which is used to calculate the single-particle matrix elements. The calculated form factors have been compared with available experimental data.
A partial temporary immunity SIR epidemic model involv nonlinear treatment rate is proposed and studied. The basic reproduction number is determined. The local and global stability of all equilibria of the model are analyzed. The conditions for occurrence of local bifurcation in the proposed epidemic model are established. Finally, numerical simulation is used to confirm our obtained analytical results and specify the control set of parameters that affect the dynamics of the model.
The educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t
... Show MoreOften requires the investor to know the result of the company's activity contribute to the investor or by wanting to invest in them because profit or loss of the company affect positively or negatively in the price of shares of the company and with the end of the fiscal year delayed companies often to issue its financial statements after it is approved and audited by an observer External Auditor, From here came the idea of research that appears to stakeholders of financial statements proactive appear, including actual figures for earlier stages have been prepared lists about lists and planned by the administration reflect the results of its phase remainder of the year as if they are (half a year or season or month) to offer At the
... Show MoreAbstract The Object of the study aims to identify the effectiveness of using the 7E’s learning cycle to learn movement chains on uneven bars, for this purpose, we used the method SPSS. On a sample composed (20) students on collage of physical education at the university of Baghdad Chosen as two groups experimental and control group (10) student for each group, and for data collection, we used SPSS After collecting the results and having treated them statistically, we conclude the use 7E’s learning cycle has achieved remarkable positive progress, but it has diverged between to methods, On this basis, the study recommended the necessity of applying 7E’s learning cycle strategy in learning the movement chain on uneven bar
... Show MoreThe aim of this study to identify the effect of using two strategies for active learning ( Jigsaw Strategy & Problems Solving) in learning some balanced beam's skills in artistic gymnastics for women , as well as to identify the best of the three methods (jigsaw strategy , problems solving and the traditional method) in learning some skills balance beam , the research has used the experimental methodology, and the subject included the students of the college of Physical Education and Sports Sciences / University of Baghdad / third grade and by the lot was selected (10) students for each group of groups Search three and The statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) was used means, the standard deviation and the (T.test), the one way a n
... Show MoreEnd of the twentieth century witnessed by the technological evolution Convergences between the visual arts aesthetic value and objective representation of the image in the composition of the design of the fabric of new insights and unconventional potential in atypical employment. It is through access to the designs of modern fabrics that address the employment picture footage included several scenes footage from the film, which focuses on research and analytical as a study to demonstrate the elements of the picture and the organization of its rules and how to functioning in the design of fabrics, Thus, it has identified the problem by asking the following: What are the elements of the picture footage and how the functioning of the struct
... Show MoreLawful protection of the human gene conceded a moral concern regarding the future of existence human. After the discovery of the human genetic map, scientific experiments and research related to the human gene increased, negative applications of genetic engineering in particular that violate essential human rights, the right to human dignity to be specific. These practices represent actual challenges to the existence and diversity of current and future generations. Therefore, the presence of legal rules at the domestic and global levels is an absolute necessity to prohibit these threats and determine civil and criminal accountability for those who infringe any laws related to this issue.
<p>The objective of this paper is to study the dynamical behavior of an aquatic food web system. A mathematical model that includes nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton is proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that, the phytoplankton divided into two compartments namely toxic phytoplankton which produces a toxic substance as a defensive strategy against predation by zooplankton, and a nontoxic phytoplankton. All the feeding processes in this food web are formulating according to the Lotka-Volterra functional response. This model is represented mathematically by the set of nonlinear differential equations. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of this model are investigated. The local and global stability
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