The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values for fluoride concentration at the six locations, Al-Karakh, East Tigris, Al-Wathbah, AL-Karamah, Al-Rashid and Al-Wahda WTP intakes, was 0.93, 0.82, 0.86, 0.90, 0.83 and 0.89, respectively. Model verification results indicated that the model forecasting outputs rationally estimated the actual monthly fluoride content in the selected locations.
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The South Baghdad electrical station located on the eastern bank of the Tigris River south of Baghdad city was selected within the municipality of Karrada between two latitude ( 330 15 , 33 0 18 )North and longitude ( 44 0 27 , 44 030 ) East . The purpose of the study is to determine the contribution of the station to the effect of pollution of the Tigris water by taking water samples at the station site and two sites, one before and the other after the station, distributed over time periods of three months between each sample of water and the beginning of August and November Shabat and Mayar and analyzed water samples physically, chemically and biologic
... Show More. In recent years, Bitcoin has become the most widely used blockchain platform in business and finance. The goal of this work is to find a viable prediction model that incorporates and perhaps improves on a combination of available models. Among the techniques utilized in this paper are exponential smoothing, ARIMA, artificial neural networks (ANNs) models, and prediction combination models. The study's most obvious discovery is that artificial intelligence models improve the results of compound prediction models. The second key discovery was that a strong combination forecasting model that responds to the multiple fluctuations that occur in the bitcoin time series and Error improvement should be used. Based on the results, the prediction a
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Segmented regression consists of several sections separated by different points of membership, showing the heterogeneity arising from the process of separating the segments within the research sample. This research is concerned with estimating the location of the change point between segments and estimating model parameters, and proposing a robust estimation method and compare it with some other methods that used in the segmented regression. One of the traditional methods (Muggeo method) has been used to find the maximum likelihood estimator in an iterative approach for the model and the change point as well. Moreover, a robust estimation method (IRW method) has used which depends on the use of the robust M-estimator technique in
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الانهار اصبحت مشبعة بثاني اوكسيد الكربون بشكل عالي وبذلك فهي تلعب دور مهم في كميات الكربون العالمية. لزيادة فهمنا حول مصادر الكربون المتوفرة في النظم البيئية النهرية، تم اجراء هذه الدراسة حول تأثير الكربون العضوي المذاب والحرارة (العوامل الرئيسية لتغير المناخ) كمحركات رئيسية لوفرة ثاني اوكسيد الكربون في الانهار. تم جمع العينات من خمسة واربعون موقع في ثلاثة اجزاء رئيسية لنهر دجلة داخل مدينة بغداد خلال فص
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Abstract
The analysis of Least Squares: LS is often unsuccessful in the case of outliers in the studied phenomena. OLS will lose their properties and then lose the property of Beast Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE), because of the Outliers have a bad effect on the phenomenon. To address this problem, new statistical methods have been developed so that they are not easily affected by outliers. These methods are characterized by robustness or (resistance). The Least Trimmed Squares: LTS method was therefore a good alternative to achieving more feasible results and optimization. However, it is possible to assume weights that take into consideration the location of the outliers in the data and det
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In this study, the stress-strength model R = P(Y < X < Z) is discussed as an important parts of reliability system by assuming that the random variables follow Invers Rayleigh Distribution. Some traditional estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters namely; Maximum Likelihood, Moment method, and Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased estimator and Shrinkage estimator using three types of shrinkage weight factors. As well as, Monte Carlo simulation are used to compare the estimation methods based on mean squared error criteria.
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Knowledge of permeability, which is the ability of rocks to transmit the fluid, is important for understanding the flow mechanisms in oil and gas reservoirs.
Permeability is best measured in the laboratory on cored rock taken from the reservoir. Coring is expensive and time-consuming in comparison to the electronic survey techniques most commonly used to gain information about permeability.
Yamama formation was chosen, to predict the permeability by using FZI method. Yamama Formation is the main lower cretaceous carbonate reservoir in southern of Iraq. This formation is made up mainly of limestone. Yamama formation was deposited on a gradually rising basin floor. The digenesis of Yamama sediments is very important due to its direct
This study was conducted to examine the discharge capacity of the reach of the Tigris River between Kut and Amarah Barrages of 250km in length. The examination includes simulation the current capacity of the reach by using HEC-RAS model. 247cross sections surveyed in 2012 were used in the simulation. The model was calibrated using observed discharges of 533, 800, 1025 and 3000m3/s discharged at Kut Barrage during 2013, 1995, 1995 and 1988, respectively, and its related water level at three gauge stations located along the reach. The result of calibration process indicated that the lowest Root Mean Square Error of 0.095 can be obtained when using Manning’s n coefficient of 0.026, 0.03 for th
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This study aims to predict the organic pollution produced from the presence of some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and determination it's concentrations (µg/L , ppb) in Tigris river water by a collection twenty-seven water samples from a selected three stations with nine sampling sites and three depths of water (5 cm , 2 m and 4 m) each site for 4.6 km distance of a geographic studied area which is located between the ( Al-Senak and AL-Sarrafiah bridges ) at Baghdad city – Iraq on May, 2012. The geographic location was determined with a Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) software program. The concentrations of fourteen components (PAHs) were performed using the reverse phase
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