The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Abstract

This study talks about a wonderful Qur'anic style. relates to one of the methods used in it. And it's the rhetorical style:  ''Affirmative say''. It is useful in arguing with the opponent, nullifying his reasoning, and proving the opposite meaning of the opponent. The study will be conducted from a Qur'anic perspective based on the study of examples of it, and partly in interpretive treatment through the book of editing and enlightenment of Taher Ibn Ashour, known for his art in matters of rhetoric and methods of controversy. This is with the rooting of this issue, and the relationship of industrial sciences to it as a Qur'anic style.

Keywords: ''Affirmative say, style, Qur'anic rhetoric, Arabic rhetoric, Co

In this paper, a mathematical model consisting of a prey-predator system incorporating infectious disease in the prey has been proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that the predator preys upon the nonrefugees prey only according to the modified Holling type-II functional response. There is a harvesting process from the predator. The existence and uniqueness of the solution in addition to their bounded are discussed. The stability analysis of the model around all possible equilibrium points is investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. Local bifurcation analysis in view of the Sotomayor theorem is carried out. Numerical simulation has been applied to investigate the global dynamics and specify the effect

Post-structural critical studies highlighted the importance of studying the texts surrounding the text as an important part in the process of receiving and understanding texts, and although this topic was dealt with by the ancient Arabs and Europeans, interest in it appeared clearly after the appearance of Gerard Genet's book (SEUILS), which separated it Text Thresholds. Or what he called paratexte, and dealt with them with interest as he reads them on books. With the development of semiotic studies, interest in paratexte studies began in a broader way and in various literary and non-literary texts, including journalistic texts. And since specialized magazines are one of the press releases that enjoy their privacy in terms of topics and

This study came to discuss the subject of industries dependent on petrochemical industries in Iraq (plastic as a model) during the period 2005–2020, and the study concluded that the plastic industries contribute to areas of advancement and progress and opportunities to deal efficiently with the challenges posed by the new variables, the most important of which is the information revolution. communications and trade liberalization, and this is what contributes to the competitiveness of these industries. And because the petrochemical industry in Iraq has an active role in establishing plastic industrial clusters and clusters of micro, small, and medium industries by providing the necessary feedstock for these industries in various fields

الخلاصة

تشير نظريات علم اجتماع المعرفة الى ان ظهور مفهوم معين او سقوطه لايتم بمحض الصدفة، بل نتيجة تفاعل مجموعة من العوامل الثقافية والسياسية وحتى الاقتصادية ومن هنا فأن ظهور مفهوم الاثنية كان محصلة عوامل كثيرة خصوصاً بعد ان اصبح موضوع الاثنية في العقود الاخيرة من القرن الماضي وبداية القرن الواحد والعشرين محور نقاش رئيس في ميدان البحث الاجتماعي والسياسي، ليس في

Prepositions have a key function, which is to associate parts of a sentence, called letters In addition, it adds the meanings of the verbs to the names, ie reached by them, and called by the coffin characters Qualities..

          I chose to search for the meaning of the preposition "from" in Surat Maryam to know its meanings in terms of originality and expansion, so the title of the research (the meanings of preposition "from" in terms of originality and expansion in Surat Maryam model(

Music and singing are always associated with the movement of society and the emergence of cultural and artistic activities other.
The social and political transformations of the 1930s helped to disseminate the study Music and music in the city of Baghdad and across Iraq This is the beginning of a new era of musical art alongside other arts.
While achieving musical arts A new step was advanced by publishing a technical study among the younger generation they were looking for to contribute to the musical field On the other hand, the city of Baghdad during the period of research many musical and musical performances Egyptian teams have provided many artistic activities and events which have had a significant impact on the development

When exercising their authority in the jurisprudence, judges are subject to a set of restrictions that they must adhere to, as they do not want their jurisprudence to be accepted and welcomed by law practitioners in general, and legal scholars in particular, and in contrast to it, the arrows of criticism and defamation will extend to that jurisprudence, and then they will have to reverse them . Perhaps the most important of those restrictions imposed on judges is their observance of justice between the parties to the lawsuit through their lack of bias for one of the parties at the expense of the other, in addition to their observance of public order and public morals, as well as their observance of the legal texts that they work under its u