Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Today, the five Caspian riparian states on the shores of the Caspian Sea (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Iran) have become a front for ambitions and international and regional competition, especially in light of the features and characteristics that natural geography has endowed them with and their enjoyment of a group of economic and mineral wealth that are not optimally exploited so far which made it a strategic attraction area for international trends and interventions, especially Western ones. It is a battleground for major international companies aiming to monopolize promising industrial investments in order to impose control and influence on the region’s resources and economic wealth and thus impose their forei

Suzanne Collins’ novel  The Hunger Games suggests a new logic of victory and set a distinguished focus on the unique personality of her heroin which brings to the mind the permanent correlation between all moral values. The Hunger Games World seems to be much more like one big bowl as it links the past, present, and the future. An Intertextual reference is interwoven in the present research as it brings Golding’s Lord of the Flies to the surface, and it highlights certain similarities between the two texts. In which Ralph, Piggy and Simon in Golding’s Lord of the Flies are the incarnations of stable moral values and hope of surviving ethics and rules in a chaotic and turmoil world. The event

Objectives: To assess the qualifications and performance of newly graduated pharmacists and explore factors that affect their performance in public hospitals. Methods: This qualitative study included face-to-face, semi-structured interviews with hospital practitioner pharmacists. It was conducted between March and May 2023 in Kerbala province, Iraq. The participating pharmacists were selected purposefully because they had three or more years of work experience at governmental hospitals. The audio-recording interviews were transcribed. Thematic analyses were used to generate themes and subthemes from the interviews. Results: Twenty-seven hospital pharmacists participated in this study. The study found that there are several factors t

A fast laser texturing technique has been utilized to produce micro/nano surface textures in Silicon by means of UV femtosecond laser. We have prepared good absorber surface for photovoltaic cells. The textured Silicon surface absorbs the incident light greater than the non-textured surface. The results show a photovoltaic current increase about 21.3% for photovoltaic cell with two-dimensional pattern as compared to the same cell without texturing.

The study aimed to identify the treatment of the press image of the Great Return Marches in the French international news agency AFP by knowing the most important issues, their direction and the degree of interest in them. The study belongs to the descriptive research, and used the survey method, within the context of the content analysis method, and the researcher relied on the content analysis form tool and the interview tool to collect data. The study population is represented in the photos published by the French News Agency about the Great Return Marches during the period (end of March / 2018 until the end of November / 2019. The researcher chose an intentional sample using the Complete Census method. The study material represented

Dialogue is one of the most important means of calling to the Creator, as it is one of the scientific and verbal activities carried out by a group of interlocutors to present ideas they believe in, and evidence and proofs that express their views and demonstrate the reason for their belief in them, In order to arrive at the truth or a radical solution to a specific problem, so the interlocutor should pay attention to this science, study it and its etiquette, because the purposeful dialogue requires that the funniest of them be the most knowledgeable and knowledgeable about the axis of the hadith, and the funniest must also be able to be convinced of the rule of difference of opinion that does not spoil the issue of friendly They must also c

Background: The aims of this study were to evaluate the effect of implant site preparation in low-density bone using osseodensification method in terms of implant stability changes during the osseous healing period and peri-implant bone density using CBCT. Material and methods: This prospective observational clinical study included 24 patients who received 46 dental implants that were installed in low-density bone using the osseodensification method. CBCT was used to measure the bone density pre- and postoperatively and implant stability was measured using Periotest® immediately after implant insertion and then after 6 weeks and 12 weeks postoperatively. The data were analyzed using paired t-test and the probability value <0.05 was conside