: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
This study presents a mathematical model describing the interaction of gut bacteria in the participation of probiotics and antibiotics, assuming that some good bacteria become harmful through mutations due to antibiotic exposure. The qualitative analysis exposes twelve equilibrium points, such as a good-bacteria equilibrium, a bad-bacteria equilibrium, and a coexisting endemic equilibrium in which both bacteria exist while being exposed to antibiotics. The theory of the Sotomayor theorem is applied to study the local bifurcation around all possible equilibrium points. It’s noticed that the transcritical and saddle-node bifurcation could occur near some of the system’s equilibrium points, while pitchfork bifurcation cannot be accrued at
... Show MoreNew series of metal ions complexes have been prepared from the new ligand [4-Amino-N-(5-methyl-isaxazol-3-yl)-benzenesulfonamide] derived from Sulfamethoxazole and 3-aminophenol. Accordingly, mono-nuclear Mn(II), Fe(III), Co (II), and Rh(III) complexes were prepared by the reaction of previous ligand with MnCl2.4H2O, CoCl2.6H2O, FeCl3.6H2O and RhCl3H2O, respectively. The compounds have been characterized by Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), ultraviolet–visible (UV–vis), mass, 1H-, and 13C-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra and thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA& DSC) curve, Bohr magnetic (B.M.), elemental microanal
... Show MoreMedicinal plants contain bioactive substances that are highly bioavailable in extracts or pure molecules, making them promising for therapeutic applications and precursors for chemo-pharmaceutical semi-synthesis. Harpagophytum procumbens (Devil’s Claw) is widely recognized as one of the most potent therapeutic herbs. This study aimed to extract seeds from H. procumbens using two types of solvents and to assess both qualitative and quantitative aspects of the extracts. The two extracts were evaluated for antibacterial and anti-biofilm activities using agar well diffusion assays against four bacterial isolates and two yeast isolates. Qualitative analysis identified the presence of alkaloids, flavonoids, tannins, saponins, and terpen
... Show MoreMedicinal plants contain bioactive substances that are highly bioavailable in extracts or pure molecules, making them promising for therapeutic applications and precursors for chemo-pharmaceutical semi-synthesis. Harpagophytum procumbens (Devil’s Claw) is widely recognized as one of the most potent therapeutic herbs. This study aimed to extract seeds from H. procumbens using two types of solvents and to assess both qualitative and quantitative aspects of the extracts. The two extracts were evaluated for antibacterial and anti-biofilm activities using agar well diffusion assays against four bacterial isolates and two yeast isolates. Qualitative analysis identified the presence of alkaloids, flavonoids, tannins, saponins, and terpen
... Show MoreAbstract: Stories, which are the result of a short text, adventure or experience description, reflect real or possible events-situations. Ömer Seyfettin, the representative of event storytelling in Turkish literature, is an important writer with his nationalist and patriotic identity. Ömer Seyfettin, who wrote many works in the genre of stories, generally addressed the social, historical and psychological issues of the founding years of the Republic of Turkey in these stories, as well as themes such as national values, human psychology, moral issues and social changes. The aim of this study is to examine the sentence structure in Ömer Seyfettin's stories called Miracle. The limitations of the study are determin
... Show MoreThis paper presents a numerical simulation for the combined effect of surface roughness and non-Newtonian behavior of the lubricant on the performance of misaligned journal bearing. The modified Reynolds equation to include the effect of non-Newtonian lubricant and bearing surface roughness has been formulated. The model accounts for the lubricant viscosity dependence on temperature and shear rate. In order to make a complete thermo-hydrodynamic analysis (THD) of rough surface misaligned journal bearing lubricated with non-Newtonian lubricant, the modified Reynolds equation coupled with the energy, heat conduction equations, the equation related the viscosity and temperature with appropriate boundary conditions have been solved simultane
... Show MoreIn multivariate survival analysis, estimating the multivariate distribution functions and then measuring the association between survival times are of great interest. Copula functions, such as Archimedean Copulas, are commonly used to estimate the unknown bivariate distributions based on known marginal functions. In this paper the feasibility of using the idea of local dependence to identify the most efficient copula model, which is used to construct a bivariate Weibull distribution for bivariate Survival times, among some Archimedean copulas is explored. Furthermore, to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed procedure, a simulation study is implemented. It is shown that this approach is useful for practical situations and applicable fo
... Show MoreIn sports where technical performance is crucial, quantitative analysis methods have evolved to track skill performance using modern training methods and technology. This helps trainers evaluate training methods and detect performance issues. Coaches and athletes know that preliminary movements improve attack accuracy, but the association between motions (strikes, presses, crushes) and target regions (torso, armed arm, head) has not been thoroughly investigated. Lack of studies on Paralympic fencing's targeted contact regions and ambiguity around the most common preliminary actions highlight the research problem. The study examined epee fencers' successful movement sequences in the Paris 2024 Paralympic Games' final bouts and touch success
... Show MoreThis study conducts a systematic comparative critical discourse analysis of news reports from prominent American (CNN) and Russian (RT) media sources covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Utilizing the theoretical frameworks of Norman Fairclough's multidimensional model and Teun van Dijk's socio-cognitive approach, the research examines the underlying ideological assumptions and discursive strategies employed by the two contrasting news channels. Quantitative analysis of discursive techniques and linguistic features provides insights into how each channel selectively utilizes language to convey distinct ideological positions. The findings demonstrate how media discourse constructs and normalizes particular ideological representations of pol
... Show MoreIn this study abundance and composition of zooplanktons in the Indus River Estuary was conducted to examine habitat characteristics and its impact on tiny organisms. Overall 30,656 individuals were identified and segregated into seven major groups including Copepods, Cnidarians, Decapods, Mollusk, Pisces, Amphipods and Chaetognaths. For better understanding they were further divided into eighteen planktonic categories. Among them Lucifer spp. comprises of 52.21% was the most abundant group with a peak appeared in March whereas Chaetognaths were rarely observed in the entire study period. Species diversity exhibited a mixed trend with the highest values (0.776) of dominance observed in spring (March). The results of Canonical Corresponden
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