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Forecasting enhancement using a hodrick-prescott filter
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: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study of the Nuclear Structure for 38Ar, 59Co, 124Sn, 146Nd, 153Eu and 203Tl Target Nuclei Used in Fabrication the Nuclear Batteries
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The nuclear structure of 38Ar, 59Co, 124Sn, 146Nd, 153Eu and 203Tl target nuclei used in technology for nuclear batteries have been investigation, in order that, these nuclei are very interesting for radioisotope thermo-electric generator (RTG) space studies and for betavoltaic battery microelectronic systems. The single particle radial density distribution, the corresponding root mean square radii (rms), neutron skin thicknesses and binding energies have been investigated within the framework of Hartree-Fock Approximation with Skyrme interaction. The bremsstrahlung spectrums produced by absorption of beta particles in betavoltaic process and backscattered p

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics, 2016
Energy transfer process between two laser compounds coumarin 334 & rhodamine 590
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Abstract: In the current research the absorption and fluorescence spectrum of Coumarin (334) and Rhodamine (590) in ethanol solvent at different concentration (10-3, 10-4, 10-5) M had been studied. The absorption intensity of these dyes increases as the Concentration increase in addition to that the spectrum was shifted towards the longer wavelength (red shift). The energy transfer process has been investigated after achievement this condition. The fluorescence peak intensity of donor molecule was decrease and its bandwidth will increases on the contrary of the acceptor molecule its intensity increase gradually and its bandwidth decreases as the acceptor concentration increase.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Analysis of the absorption spectra in the visible and ultraviolet regions of some medical ointments available in Iraqi markets
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Three types of medical commercial creams Silvazine, Cinolon Tar and Hydroquinon Domina were incorporated in this study. The medical creams were taken directly and placed uniformly on the glass slide. Each type of pharmaceutical was weighed at 1 mg and dispersed on an area of 1x1 cm. This process ensures same thickness for all samples. The creams were analyzed by using double-beam UV/visible spectrophotometer Metertech SP8001. The absorption spectrum for each of samples was measured against wavelength range of 300–700 nm.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Electrical And Computer Engineering (ijece)
Optimized Kalman filters for sensorless vector control induction motor drives
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<span lang="EN-US">This paper presents the comparison between optimized unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and optimized extended Kalman filter (EKF) for sensorless direct field orientation control induction motor (DFOCIM) drive. The high performance of UKF and EKF depends on the accurate selection of state and noise covariance matrices. For this goal, multi objective function genetic algorithm is used to find the optimal values of state and noise covariance matrices. The main objectives of genetic algorithm to be minimized are the mean square errors (MSE) between actual and estimation of speed, current, and flux. Simulation results show the optimal state and noise covariance matrices can improve the estimation of speed, current, t

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Mosul and Haditha Dam Flow Data
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The expansion in water projects implementations in Turkey and Syria becomes of great concern to the workers in the field of water resources management in Iraq. Such expansion with the absence of bi-lateral agreement between the three riparian countries of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; Turkey, Syria and Iraq, is expected to lead to a substantially reduction of water inflow to the territories of Iraq. Accordingly, this study consists of two parts: first part is aiming to study the changes of the water inflow to the territory of Iraq, at Turkey and Syria borders, from 1953 to 2009; the results indicated that the annual mean inflow in Tigris River was decreased from 677 m3/sec to 526 m3/sec, after operating Turkey reserv

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Recorded Inflow Data of Ataturk Reservoir
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Since the beginning of the last century, the competition for water resources has intensified dramatically, especially between countries that have no agreements in place for water resources that they share. Such is the situation with the Euphrates River which flows through three countries (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) and represents the main water resource for these countries. Therefore, the comprehensive hydrologic investigation needed to derive optimal operations requires reliable forecasts. This study aims to analysis and create a forecasting model for data generation from Turkey perspective by using the recorded inflow data of Ataturk reservoir for the period (Oct. 1961 - Sep. 2009). Based on 49 years of real inflow data

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Applying Social Stories in Developing Social Interaction Skills among Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the effectiveness of social stories in increasing social interaction among children with an autism spectrum disorder. The researcher used the single-subject design methodology (Single Subject Designs, SSD) with

 (A-B) design to answer the research questions. The study sample consisted of (3) children with autism spectrum disorder enrolled in a transit daycare center in the Asir region, Saudi Arabia. The results of the study showed that there is a positive functional relationship between social stories and play to increase social interaction among children with autism spectrum disorder, which contributed to the acquisition and generalization of this behav

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Application of Strategies about Pragmatic Language for Trainers who work at Autism Centers in Baghdad city
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Abstract

The study aimed: To assess the level of trainers' knowledge about the application of strategies and to find out the relationship between Trainer's knowledge and their socio-demographic characteristics.

Methodology: Using the pre-experimental design of the current study, for one group of 47 trainers working at the private Autism Centers in Baghdad, data was collected from 8/January / 2022 to 13 /February /2022. Using non-probability samples (convenient samples), self-management technology in which trainers fill out the questionnaire form themselves was used in the data collection process; it was analyzed through descriptive and inference statistics.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
The use of ARIMA, ANN and SVR models in time series hybridization with practical application
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Forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, as the importance of forecasting in the economic field has emerged in order to achieve economic growth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges that we seek to make the best decision, the aim of the research is to suggest employing hybrid models to predict daily crude oil prices. The hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models, and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR) algorithm and it was shown that the proposed hybrid models in the predicti

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Effect of Initial Water Content on the Properties of Compacted Expansive Unsaturated Soil
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Unsaturated soil can raise many geotechnical problems upon wetting and drying resulting in swelling upon wetting and collapsing (shrinkage) in drying and changing in the soil shear strength. The classical principles of saturated soil are often not suitable in explaining these phenomena. In this study, expansive  soil (bentonite and sand) were tested in different water contents and dry unit weight chosen from the compaction curve to examine the effect of water content change on soil properties (swelling pressure, expansion index, shear strength (soil cohesion) and soil suction by the filter paper method). The physical properties of these soils were studied by conducting series of tests in laboratory. Fitting methods

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