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Forecasting enhancement using a hodrick-prescott filter
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: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 08 2024
Journal Name
Fifth International Conference On Applied Sciences: Icas2023
Bifurcation analysis of the role of good and bad bacteria in the decomposing toxins in the intestine with the impact of antibiotic and probiotics supplement
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This study presents a mathematical model describing the interaction of gut bacteria in the participation of probiotics and antibiotics, assuming that some good bacteria become harmful through mutations due to antibiotic exposure. The qualitative analysis exposes twelve equilibrium points, such as a good-bacteria equilibrium, a bad-bacteria equilibrium, and a coexisting endemic equilibrium in which both bacteria exist while being exposed to antibiotics. The theory of the Sotomayor theorem is applied to study the local bifurcation around all possible equilibrium points. It’s noticed that the transcritical and saddle-node bifurcation could occur near some of the system’s equilibrium points, while pitchfork bifurcation cannot be accrued at

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Recycling of Chicken Egg Shells into Nanopowder: Synthesis, and its Properties
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Increase in unconventional resources of calcium (Ca+2) for fowls, aquaculture and native animals was improved. This work was planned to define the most polymorph of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) that take place in the two types of chicken eggshells (local and imported type). In this research, the comparative analysis of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) content was approved for nominated eggshells of native strain and imported chicken via Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM), Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM), Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) and Powder X-Ray Diffraction (PXRD) analysis. The results demonstrate that native and imported chicken eggshells comprise calcite morph that ha

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Mn(II),Fe(III),Co(II)and Rh(III) complexes with azo ligand: Synthesis, characterization, thermal analysis and bioactivity
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New series of metal ions complexes have been prepared from the new ligand [4-Amino-N-(5-methyl-isaxazol-3-yl)-benzenesulfonamide] derived from Sulfamethoxazole and 3-aminophenol. Accordingly, mono-nuclear Mn(II), Fe(III), Co (II), and Rh(III) complexes were prepared by the reaction of previous ligand with MnCl2.4H2O, CoCl2.6H2O, FeCl3.6H2O and RhCl3H2O, respectively. The compounds have been characterized by Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), ultraviolet–visible (UV–vis), mass,  1H-, and 13C-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra and thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA& DSC) curve, Bohr magnetic (B.M.), elemental microanal

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Asphaltene Stability of Some Iraqi Dead Crude oils
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Asphaltene is one of the fractions of the crude oil which is soluble in aromatics such as benzene or toluene and insoluble in alkane such as n-heptane, n-pentane or petroleum ether (mixture of alkane compounds).  Asphaltene precipitation is one of the most common problems that sometimes occurs in both oil recovery and refinery processes as a result of changing in pressure, oil composition, or temperature. Therefore the stability of asphaltene in the crude oil must be studied to show the tendency of it for precipitating asphaltene to prevent it (Asphaltene precipitation and deposition problem) and eliminate the burden of high treatment costs.

In the present study, saturate, aromatic, resin and asphaltene (SAR

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Finite Element Analysis of UHPC Corbels
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   Finite element method is the most widely numerical technique used in engineering field. Through the study of behavior of concrete material properties, various concrete constitutive laws  and failure criteria have been developed to model the behavior of concrete. A feature of the Finite Element program (ATENA) is used in this study to model the behavior of UHPC corbel under concentrated load only. The Finite Element (FE) model is followed by verification against experimental results. Some variable effects on the shear capacity of the UHPC corbels are also demonstrated in a parametric study. A proposed design equation of shear strength of UHPC corbel was presented and checked with numerical results.
 

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2023
Journal Name
2023 3rd International Conference On Intelligent Cybernetics Technology & Applications (icicyta)
GPT-4 versus Bard and Bing: LLMs for Fake Image Detection
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The recent emergence of sophisticated Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-4, Bard, and Bing has revolutionized the domain of scientific inquiry, particularly in the realm of large pre-trained vision-language models. This pivotal transformation is driving new frontiers in various fields, including image processing and digital media verification. In the heart of this evolution, our research focuses on the rapidly growing area of image authenticity verification, a field gaining immense relevance in the digital era. The study is specifically geared towards addressing the emerging challenge of distinguishing between authentic images and deep fakes – a task that has become critically important in a world increasingly reliant on digital med

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 21 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS OF HUMAN AND ARTIFICIAL ARTICULAR CARTILAGE
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Joint diseases, such as osteoarthritis, induce pain and loss of mobility to millions of people around the world. Current clinical methods for the diagnosis of osteoarthritis include X-ray, magnetic resonance imaging, and arthroscopy. These methods may be insensitive to the earliest signs of osteoarthritis. This study investigates a new procedure that was developed and validated numerically for use in the evaluation of cartilage quality. This finite element model of the human articular cartilage could be helpful in providing insight into mechanisms of injury, effects of treatment, and the role of mechanical factors in degenerative
conditions, this three-dimensional finite element model is a useful tool for understanding of the stress d

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Examining sensitivity of financial performance at construction projects prequalification stage
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Construction projects are complicated in nature and require many considerations in contractor selection. One of the complicated interactions is that between performance with the project size, and contractor financial status, and size of projects contracted. At the prequalification stage, the financial ‎requirements restrict the ‎contractors to meet minimum limits in financial criteria such as net worth, working capital and ‎annual turnover, etc. In construction projects, however, there are cases when contractors meet these requirements but show low performance in practice. The model used in the study predicts the performance by training of a neural network. The data used in the study are 72 of the most recent roadw

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Experimental Assessment of R134a and Its Lower GWP Alternative R1234yf in an Automobile Air Conditioning System
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Reducing global warming potential (GWP) of refrigerants is needed to the decrease of ozone-depleting of refrigeration systems leakages. Refrigerant R1234yf is now used to substitute R134a inside mobile air conditioning systems. Thermodynamic properties of R1234yf are similar to R134a. Also, it has a very low GWP of 4, compared to 1430 for R134a, making it a proper choice for future automobile refrigerants. The purpose of this research is to represent the main operating and performance differences between R1234yf and R134a. Experimental analysis was carried out on the automotive air conditioning system (AACS) with 3 kW nominal capacity, to test and compare the performance of R134a with R1234yf. Experiments were accomplish

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Zooplankton composition and structure in the Indus River Estuary, Sindh, Pakistan
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In this study abundance and composition of zooplanktons in the Indus River Estuary was conducted to examine habitat characteristics and its impact on tiny organisms. Overall 30,656 individuals were identified and segregated into seven major groups including Copepods, Cnidarians, Decapods, Mollusk, Pisces, Amphipods and Chaetognaths. For better understanding they were further divided into eighteen planktonic categories. Among them Lucifer spp. comprises of 52.21% was the most abundant group with a peak appeared in March whereas Chaetognaths were rarely observed in the entire study period. Species diversity exhibited a mixed trend with the highest values (0.776) of dominance observed in spring (March). The results of Canonical Corresponden

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