: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
Background: Lead (pb )is suspected to be one of the endocrine disruptors. People are exposed to high levelsof it in the environment through several ways .In the last years there was an evidence that it affects semenquality. The aim of the study is to assess the level of lead in the blood of male patients and correlate it with theseminal fluid parameters and hormonal levels.Methods: Fifty three infertile male patients, attending the infertility clinic in Baghdad Teaching Hospital fromFebruary 2016 till June 2016, participated in this study. Detailed history was taken and careful examinationwas done. Semen was collected from the patients and analyzed. Blood was withdrawn for hormonal and leadanalysis.Results: There was an increase in blood le
... Show MoreThe Capparis spinosa L. is a species has a great interest in the field of traditional medicine for its pharmacological properties with many bioactive compounds. Our study is aiming at the recovery of this species through a phytochemical analysis and an evaluation of antibacterial and antioxidant activities of leaves of Capparis spinosa L. collected from natural habitats within the region of Al-Jadriya, Baghdad, Iraq. Phytochemical investigation demonstrated the presence of flavonoids, phenols, alkaloids, tannins, and glycosides in the methanolic extract of leaves. The quantitative analysis of total phenolic contents is being performed by Folin-Ciocalteau method and expressed in terms of gallic acid equivalents. C. spinosa exhibited progress
... Show MoreIn this paper, a new approach was suggested to the method of Gauss Seidel through the controlling of equations installation before the beginning of the method in the traditional way. New structure of equations occur after the diagnosis of the variable that causes the fluctuation and the slow extract of the results, then eradicating this variable. This procedure leads to a higher accuracy and less number of steps than the old method. By using the this proposed method, there will be a possibility of solving many of divergent values equations which cannot be solved by the old style.
This study presents determination of the paleostress magnitudes and orientation of Bekhme Structure in Shaqlawa area northeastern Iraq. Paleostress Analysis of slip-fault measurements is performed using Right dihedral, Lisle diagram and Mohr Circles methods. Depending on Mohr Circles, Bott law and vertical thickness, the magnitudes of the paleostress at the time of the tectonic activity were determined. Firstly, Georient Software was used to estimate the orientation of the paleostresses (σ1, σ2 and σ3). Secondly, using the rupture –friction law, taking into account depth of the overburden and the vertical stress (σv) was calculated to determine the magnitude of the paleostresses (σ1=4500 bars, σ2=1
... Show MoreIn this study, the induced splined shaft teeth contact and bending stresses have been investigated numerically using finite element method(Ansys package version 11.0) with changing the most effecting design parameter,(pressure angle, teeth number, fillet radius and normal module), for internal and external splined shaft. Experimental work has been achieved using two dimensional photoelastic techniques to get the contact and bending stresses; the used material is Bakelite sheet type “PSM-4”.
The results of numerical stress analysis indicate that, the increasing of the pressure angle and fillet radius decrease the bending stress and increase the contact stress for both internal and external spline shaft teeth while the increasing of
The aim of the current research to determine the extent of logical intelligence in the book of chemistry for the fifth grade of science and to achieve the goal the researcher has prepared a special criterion in the areas of logical intelligence main and sub-to be included in the book after reviewing the previous literature and studies in this regard may be the final form after presentation to experts and arbitrators in the field of Educational and psychological sciences, curricula and teaching methods from (3) main areas and (21) sub-fields, then the researcher analyzed the book Bibih and applied branches and adopted the idea of both explicit and implicit as a unit of registration and repet
... Show MoreThe Al-Kindy College Medical Journal (KCMJ) is an Iraqi scholarly journal published by the Al-Kindy College of Medicine, University of Baghdad. It was officially founded in 2004. It is a peer-reviewed journal, published in both online and printed forms. It has a mission to offer a publication platform that mirrors recent knowledge and findings in the field of medicine and medical sciences. It publishes various types of articles, including editorial, review article, research article, brief report, case report, and letter to editor. It accepts articles in the English language. It was biannually published till 2021 when it started to launch three issues per year. The journal is registered with numerous partners, including Iraqi Academi
... Show MorePetrophysical properties evaluation from well log analysis has always been crucial for the identification and assessment of hydrocarbon bearing zones. East Baghdad field is located 10 km east of Baghdad city, where the southern area includes the two southern portions of the field, Khasib formation is the main reservoir of East Baghdad oil field.
In this paper, well log data of nine wells have been environmentally corrected, where the corrected data used to determine lithology, shale volume, porosity, and water saturation. Lithology identified by two methods; neutron-density and M-N matrix plots, while the shale volume estimated by single shale indicator and dual shale indicator, The porosity is calculated from the three common po
... Show MoreNew mixed ligand complexes of New Schiff base 4,4'- ((naphthalen-1-ylimino) methylene) dibenzene-1,3-diol and 8-hydroxy quinoline: Synthesis, Spectral Characterization, Thermal studies and Biological Activities
Theresearch took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial andthat includes all of them spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had
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