: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
Extracting, studying and interpreting the morphological database of a basin is a basic building block for building a correct geomorphological understanding of this basin. In this work, Arc GIS 10.8 software and SRTM DEM satellite images were used. The principle of data integration was adopted by extracting the quantitative values of the morphometric characteristics that are affected by the geomorphological condition of the studied basin, then eliciting an optimal conception of the geomorphological condition of the basin from the meanings and connotations of these combined transactions. Hypsometric integration was extracted for each region in the basin separately with the value of integration of the plot curve for the relative heights of
... Show MoreSingle phase capacitor-run induction motors (IMs) are used in various applications such as home appliances and machine tools; they are affected by the sags or swells and any fault that can lead to disturb the supply and make it produce rms voltage below or above the rated motor voltage, which is 220V. A control system is designed to regulate the output voltage of the converter irrespective to the variation of the load and within a specific range of supply voltage variation. The steady-state equivalent circuit of the Buck-Boost chopper type AC voltage regulator, as well as the analysis of this circuit are presented in this paper. Switching device for the regulator is an IGBT Module. The proposed chopper uses pulse width modulation (PWM) c
... Show MoreIn this paper we proposes the philosophy of the Darwinian selection as synthesis method called Genetic algorithm ( GA ), and include new merit function with simple form then its uses in other works for designing one of the kinds of multilayer optical filters called high reflection mirror. Here we intend to investigate solutions for many practical problems. This work appears designed high reflection mirror that have good performance with reduction the number of layers, which can enable one to controlling the errors effect of the thickness layers on the final product, where in this work we can yield such a solution in a very shorter time by controlling the length of the chromosome and optimal genetic operators . Res
... Show MoreThe main purpose of this paper is to introduce a some concepts in fibrewise bitopological spaces which are called fibrewise , fibrewise -closed, fibrewise −compact, fibrewise -perfect, fibrewise weakly -closed, fibrewise almost -perfect, fibrewise ∗-bitopological space respectively. In addition the concepts as - contact point, ij-adherent point, filter, filter base, ij-converges to a subset, ij-directed toward a set, -continuous, -closed functions, -rigid set, -continuous functions, weakly ijclosed, ij-H-set, almost ij-perfect, ∗-continuous, pairwise Urysohn space, locally ij-QHC bitopological space are introduced and the main concept in this paper is fibrewise -perfect bitopological spaces. Several theorems and characterizations c
... Show MoreThis Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters (as done in the first edition 2019). Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. While the revised new chapters have been added (as the curr
... Show MoreThis Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters (as done in the first edition 2019). Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. While the revised new chapters have been added (as the curr
... Show MoreFrictional heat is generated when the clutch starts to engag. As a result of this operation the surface temperature is increased rapidly due to the difference in speed between the driving and driven parts. The influence of the thickness of frictional facing on the distribution of the contact pressure of the multi-disc clutches has been investigated using a numerical approach (the finite element method). The analysis of contact problem has been carried out for a multiple disc dry clutch (piston, clutch discs, separators and pressure plate). The results present the distribution of the contact pressure on all tShe surfaces of friction discs that existed in the friction clutch system. Axisymmetric finite element models have been developed to ac
... Show MoreIn this study, a cholera model with asymptomatic carriers was examined. A Holling type-II functional response function was used to describe disease transmission. For analyzing the dynamical behavior of cholera disease, a fractional-order model was developed. First, the positivity and boundedness of the system's solutions were established. The local stability of the equilibrium points was also analyzed. Second, a Lyapunov function was used to construct the global asymptotic stability of the system for both endemic and disease-free equilibrium points. Finally, numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis were carried out using matlab software to demonstrate the accuracy and validate the obtained results.
This study aims to show, the strength of steel beam-concrete slab system without using shear connectors (known as a non-composite action), where the effect of the friction force between the concrete slab and the steel beam has been investigated, by using finite element simulation.
The proposed finite element model has been verified based on comparison with an experimental work. Then, the model was adopted to study the system strength with a different steel beam and concrete slab profile. ABAQUS has been adopted in the preparation of all numerical models for this study.
After validation of the numerical models, a parametric study was conducted, with linear and non-linear Regression analysis. An equation re
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