: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
In this study predication of crop coefficient (Kc) values through growing season for cucumber plant was conducted. A field experiment was carried out at AL Yusufiyah Township, in the Governorate of Baghdad, (latitude: 33°09' N, longitude: 44°24' E, and altitude: 34 m) in medium loam soil. The plant was cultivated inside the greenhouse under subsurface trickle irrigation system with soil water retention technology (SWRT) during the growing season 2017. Crop coefficient values were guessed from the direct method of measurements of daily crop evapotranspiration, while reference evapotranspiration was obtained from Agricultural Meteorology Project - Station of Baghdad - Abu-Ghraib. The obtained results were showed that crop coeffici
... Show MoreIn this paper, several combination algorithms between Partial Update LMS (PU LMS) methods and previously proposed algorithm (New Variable Length LMS (NVLLMS)) have been developed. Then, the new sets of proposed algorithms were applied to an Acoustic Echo Cancellation system (AEC) in order to decrease the filter coefficients, decrease the convergence time, and enhance its performance in terms of Mean Square Error (MSE) and Echo Return Loss Enhancement (ERLE). These proposed algorithms will use the Echo Return Loss Enhancement (ERLE) to control the operation of filter's coefficient length variation. In addition, the time-varying step size is used.The total number of coefficients required was reduced by about 18% , 10% , 6%
... Show Moreorder to increase the level of security, as this system encrypts the secret image before sending it through the internet to the recipient (by the Blowfish method). As The Blowfish method is known for its efficient security; nevertheless, the encrypting time is long. In this research we try to apply the smoothing filter on the secret image which decreases its size and consequently the encrypting and decrypting time are decreased. The secret image is hidden after encrypting it into another image called the cover image, by the use of one of these two methods" Two-LSB" or" Hiding most bits in blue pixels". Eventually we compare the results of the two methods to determine which one is better to be used according to the PSNR measurs
Atorvastatin (ATR) is a poorly water-soluble anti-hyperlipidemic drug. The drug belongs to the class II group according to the biopharmaceutical classification system (BCS) with low bioavailability due to its low solubility. Solid dispersion is an effective technique for enhancing the solubility and dissolution of drugs. Phospholipid solid dispersion (PSD) using phosphatidylcholine (PC) as a carrier with or without adsorbent (magnesium aluminum silicate, silicon dioxide 15nm, silicon dioxide 30nm, calcium silicate) was used to prepare ATR PSD using different drug: PC: adsorbent ratios by solvent evaporation method. The resulted PSD was evaluated for its percentage yield, drug content, solubility, dissolution rate, Fourier transforma
... Show MoreIn IRAQ, the air conditioners are the principal cause of high electrical demand. In summer, the outer temperature sometimes exceeds 500C which significantly effects on the A/C system performance and power consumed. In the present work, the improvement in mechanical and electrical performance of split A/C system is investigated experimentally and analytically. In this paper, performance and energy saving enhancement of a split-A/C system was experimentally investigated to be efficiently compatible with elevated temperature weathers. This improvement is accomplished via Smart Control System integrate with Proportional-Integral- Differential PID algorithm. The PIC16F877A micro-controller has been programmed with the PID and PWM c
... Show MorePerformance of gas-solid spouted bed benefit from solids uniformity structure (UI).Therefore, the focus of this work is to maximize UI across the bed based on process variables. Hence, UI is to be considered as the objective of the optimization process .Three selected process variables are affecting the objective function. These decision variables are: gas velocity, particle density and particle diameter. Steady-state solids concentration measurements were carried out in a narrow 3-inch cylindrical spouted bed made of Plexiglas that used 60° conical shape base. Radial concentration of particles (glass and steel beads) at various bed heights and different flow patterns were measured using sophisticated optical probes. Stochastic Genetic
... Show MoreIn this study, the flow and heat transfer characteristics of Al2O3-water nanofluids for a range of the Reynolds number of 3000, 4500, 6000 and 7500 with a range of volume concentration of 1%, 2%, 3% and 4% are studied numerically. The test rig consists of cold liquid loop, hot liquid loop and the test section which is counter flow double pipe heat exchanger with 1m length. The inner tube is made of smooth copper with diameter of 15mm. The outer tube is made of smooth copper with diameter of 50mm. The hot liquid flows through the outer tube and the cold liquid (or nanofluid) flow through the inner tube. The boundary condition of this study is thermally insulated the outer wall with uniform velocity a
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