: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.
A hyperboloid solar concentrator (HSC) was designed with a truncation angle side to the entrance aperture by simulation in the Zemax Optical Design software. The (HSC) has a wide exposure range to solar radiation due to the relatively large entrance aperture. The design consists of an entrance aperture facing the sun to obtain the largest possible amount of solar radiation, and a small exit aperture compared to the entrance aperture whose mission is to receive solar radiation after it enters the entrance aperture and reflects it from the inner reflective walls of the (HSC). In the exit aperture, there is a detector to measure the number of rays incident on it, which is a measure of the optical efficiency of the s
... Show MoreThe microstructure and wear properties of 392 Al alloy with different Mg contents were studied using centrifugal casting. All melted alloys were heated to 800 ºC and poured into the preheated centrifugal casting mold (200-250 ºC) at different mould rotational speeds (1500, 1900 and 2300 r.p.m). It is clear from the results obtained that wear rate was dependent on the Mg content, applied load and mould rotational speed. Furthermore, wear test showed that the minimum wear rate was found in the inner layer of produced rings at mould rotational speed of 1900 r.p.m and Mg content of 5%.
Abstract:
In this research we discussed the parameter estimation and variable selection in Tobit quantile regression model in present of multicollinearity problem. We used elastic net technique as an important technique for dealing with both multicollinearity and variable selection. Depending on the data we proposed Bayesian Tobit hierarchical model with four level prior distributions . We assumed both tuning parameter are random variable and estimated them with the other unknown parameter in the model .Simulation study was used for explain the efficiency of the proposed method and then we compared our approach with (Alhamzwi 2014 & standard QR) .The result illustrated that our approach
... Show MoreI've made extensive studies on the distribution of the electric field stable heterogeneous within intensive that contain metal rings with slope diagonal positive to a site halfway to be in its maximum value, followed by decline negative and equally to the other end of the concentrated distributed by electric stable thanking sequentially and have focused empirical studies in the pastthe molecules that you focused Pantqaúha during passage
There many methods for estimation of permeability. In this Paper, permeability has been estimated by two methods. The conventional and modified methods are used to calculate flow zone indicator (FZI). The hydraulic flow unit (HU) was identified by FZI technique. This technique is effective in predicting the permeability in un-cored intervals/wells. HU is related with FZI and rock quality index (RQI). All available cores from 7 wells (Su -4, Su -5, Su -7, Su -8, Su -9, Su -12, and Su -14) were used to be database for HU classification. The plot of probability cumulative of FZI is used. The plot of core-derived probability FZI for both modified and conventional method which indicates 4 Hu (A, B, C and D) for Nahr Umr forma
... Show MoreBackground: Acne is a common disorder experienced by adolescents and persists into adulthood in approximately 12%–14% of cases with psychological and social implications of high gravity. Fractional resurfacing employs a unique mechanism of action that repairs a fraction of skin at a time. The untreated healthy skin remains intact and actually aids the repair process, promoting rapid healing with only a day or two of downtime. Aims: This study, was designed to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of fractional photothermolysis (fractionated Er: YAG laser 2940nm) in treating atrophic acne scars. Methods: 7 females and 3 males with moderate to severe atrophic acne scarring were enrolled in this study that attained private clinic for Derm
... Show MoreThe aim of this paper is to present a method for solving third order ordinary differential equations with two point boundary condition , we propose two-point osculatory interpolation to construct polynomial solution. The original problem is concerned using two-points osculatory interpolation with the fit equal numbers of derivatives at the end points of an interval [0 , 1] . Also, many examples are presented to demonstrate the applicability, accuracy and efficiency of the method by compared with conventional method .
Recently The problem of desertification and vegetation cover degradation become an environmental global challenge. This problem could be summarized as as the land cover changes. In this paper, the area of Al- Muthana in the south of Iraq will be consider as one of Semi-arid lands. For this purpose, the Ladsat-8 images can be used with 15 m in spatial resolution. In order to over Achieve the work, many important ground truth data must be collected such as, rain precipitation, temperature distribution over the seasons, the DEM of the region, and the soil texture characteristics. The extracted data from this project are tables, 2-D figures, and GIS maps represent the distributions of vegetation areas, evaporation / precipitation, river levels
... Show MoreThis research estimates the effect of independent factors like filler (3%, 6%, 9%, 11% weight fraction), normal load (5N, 10N, 15N), and time sliding (5,7 , 9 minutes) on wear behavior of unsaturated polyester resin reinforced with jute fiber and waste eggshell and, rice husk powder composites by utilizing a statistical approach. The specimens polymeric composite prepared from resin unsaturated polyester filled with (4% weight fraction) jute fiber, and (3%, 6%, 9%, 11% weight fraction) eggshell, and rice husk by utilizing (hand lay-up) molding. Dry sliding wear experiments were carried utilizing a standard (pin on disc test setup) following a well designed empirical schedule that depends on Taguchi’s experimental design L9 (MINIT
... Show MoreWith the wide developments of computer science and applications of networks, the security of information must be increased and make it more complex. The most important issues is how to control and prevent unauthorized access to secure information, therefore this paper presents a combination of two efficient encryption algorithms to satisfy the purpose of information security by adding a new level of encryption in Rijndael-AES algorithm. This paper presents a proposed Rijndael encryption and decryption process with NTRU algorithm, Rijndael algorithm is important because of its strong encryption. The proposed updates are represented by encryption and decryption Rijndael S-Box using NTRU algorithm. These modifications enhance the degree of
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