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Forecasting enhancement using a hodrick-prescott filter
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: Sound forecasts are essential elements of planning, especially for dealing with seasonality, sudden changes in demand levels, strikes, large fluctuations in the economy, and price-cutting manoeuvres for competition. Forecasting can help decision maker to manage these problems by identifying which technologies are appropriate for their needs. The proposal forecasting model is utilized to extract the trend and cyclical component individually through developing the Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Then, the fit models of these two real components are estimated to predict the future behaviour of electricity peak load. Accordingly, the optimal model obtained to fit the periodic component is estimated using spectrum analysis and Fourier model, and the expected trend is obtained using simple linear regression models. Actual and generation data were used for the performance evaluation of the proposed model. The results of the current model, with improvement, showed higher accuracy as compared to ARIMA model performance.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages
Dylan Thomas:The vision of Death as a Prologue to a New Life
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Dylan Thomas (1914-1953) is a modern poet belongs to the apocalyptic movement of the 1940's.This movement is influenced by the doctrines and techniques of surrealism. Poetry for him should not be primarily concerned with man in society, but with the celebration of spiritual truth. It should bring to light the hidden causes, hence his personal interest is to strip darkness and explore the inward motives. To do this he uses a cluster of images: a constant building up and breaking down of images. His poetry depends on the romantic spontaneity, suggestiveness of the Symbolists and the the surrealists' mysterious liberation of the unconsciousness and the emotional involvement in the dynamics of life. In "Light Breaks

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Urban improvement, a mechanism of tourism development: Tébessa (Algeria) as a model
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The tourism industry has become, currently, an art, an industry and a science. It is also one of the components that make up touristic regions. Tourist attractions are no longer the exclusive visits of museums and archeological sites, but also involve other service facilities. It is, therefore, imperative that the authorities should become aware of the degradation of tourist resorts and prevent them from getting worse. Moreover, the authorities should take a set of decisions concerning the protection of the urban aspect with its historical, social, and environmental dimensions, as well as, adapting it to the modern requirements that can bring comfort to the citizens and tourists at physical and psychological levels.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Static Analysis of Laminated Composite Plate using New Higher Order Shear Deformation Plate Theory
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 In the present work a theoretical analysis depending on the new higher order . element in shear deformation theory for simply supported cross-ply laminated plate is developed. The new displacement field of the middle surface expanded as a combination of exponential and trigonometric function of thickness coordinate with the transverse displacement taken to be constant through the thickness. The governing equations are derived using Hamilton’s principle and solved using Navier solution method to obtain the deflection and stresses under uniform sinusoidal load. The effect of many design parameters such as number of laminates, aspect ratio and thickness ratio on static behavior of the laminated composite plate has been studied. The

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Mehar method to change fuzzy cost of fuzzy linear model with practical application
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  Many production companies suffers from big losses because of  high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.

  The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.

  I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Solid Waste Treatment Using Multi-Criteria Decision Support Methods Case Study Lattakia City
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Lattakia city faces many problems related to the mismanagement of solid waste, as the disposal process is limited to the random Al-Bassa landfill without treatment. Therefore, solid waste management poses a special challenge to decision-makers by choosing the appropriate tool that supports strategic decisions in choosing municipal solid waste treatment methods and evaluating their management systems. As the human is primarily responsible for the formation of waste, this study aims to measure the degree of environmental awareness in the Lattakia Governorate from the point of view of the research sample members and to discuss the effect of the studied variables (place of residence, educational level, gender, age, and professional status) o

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Monthly Fluoride Content in Tigris River using SARIMA Model in R Software
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The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficien

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Monthly Fluoride Content in Tigris River using SARIMA Model in R Software
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The need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlat

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
The Inverse Solution Of Dexterous Robot By Using Neural Networks
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The inverse kinematics of redundant manipulators has infinite solutions by using conventional methods, so that, this work presents applicability of intelligent tool (artificial neural network ANN) for finding one desired solution from these solutions. The inverse analysis and trajectory planning of a three link redundant planar robot have been studied in this work using a proposed dual neural networks model (DNNM), which shows a predictable time decreasing in the training session. The effect of the number of the training sets on the DNNM output and the number of NN layers have been studied. Several trajectories have been implemented using point to point trajectory planning algorithm with DNNM and the result shows good accuracy of the end

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Evaluation of Urban Planning Projects Criteria Using Fuzzy AHP Technique
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In this research,  Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process technique is applied (Fuzzy AHP) which is one of  multi-criteria decision making techniques to evaluate the criteria for urban planning projects, the project of developing master plan of Al-Muqdadiyah city to 2035 has been chosen as a case study. The researcher prepared a list of criteria in addition to the authorized departments criteria and previous researches in order to choose optimized master plan according to these criteria. This research aims at employing the foundations of (Fuzzy AHP) technique in evaluating urban planning criteria precisely and flexible. The results of the data analysis to the individuals of the sample who are specialists, in this aspect.  The la

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 30 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Numerical Simulation of Solar Granulation Dynamics Using Optical Correction Techniques
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High-resolution imaging of celestial bodies, especially the sun, is essential for understanding dynamic phenomena and surface details. However, the Earth's atmospheric turbulence distorts the incoming light wavefront, which poses a challenge for accurate solar imaging. Solar granulation, the formation of granules and intergranular lanes on the sun's surface, is important for studying solar activity. This paper investigates the impact of atmospheric turbulence-induced wavefront distortions on solar granule imaging and evaluates, both visually and statistically, the effectiveness of Zonal Adaptive Optics (AO) systems in correcting these distortions. Utilizing cellular automata for granulation modelling and Zonal AO correction methods,

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