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Tectonic activation and the risk of Ilisu Dam collapse to Iraq through modelling and simulation using HEC-RAS
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Abstract<p>Floods caused by dam failures can cause huge losses of life and property, especially in estuarine areas and valleys. In spite of all the capabilities and great improvements reached by man in the construction of dams and their structures, they will remain helpless before the powerful forces of nature, especially those related to tectonic activation, and the occurrence of earthquakes of different intensities.</p><p>The region extending from the Ilisu Dam in Turkey to the Mosul Dam in Iraq was chosen as an area for this study, and the HEC-RAS application was used to simulate the collapse of the Ilisu Dam due to a major earthquake, to know the magnitude of the risks and losses that could result from this. The Ilisu Dam was built very close to a highly tectonically active fault system, particularly the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), which is one of the largest tectonically active faults in the world with a length of 500 km. This region has witnessed past and present earthquakes of high magnitude (M > 7), especially in the EAF, so the construction of the Ilisu Dam near the EAF fault system is of great concern, as it was built in a basin with very complex seismic activity and geology.</p><p>Using the HEC-RAS simulation application, the study found that the flood resulting from the collapse of the Ilisu Dam would reach the edges of the Mosul Dam Lake in just 13 h. With a flow of more than 100,000 m<sup>3</sup>/s, more than 10 billion m3 of water will flow into the Mosul Dam Lake within four days of the disaster. This will lead to the collapse of the Mosul Dam and direct the flood wave of the collapse of these dams towards Baghdad through Mosul, Tikrit, and Samarra. This could pose risks to all Iraqi cities located within the Iraqi sedimentary plain (Mesopotamia), from south of the Mosul Dam up to Basra, in a scenario similar to Noah’s Flood.</p>
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 05 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
The proportion and risk factors of fatal outcomes among severely and critically ill COVID-19 patients: A hospital experience, Baghdad, Iraq 2021
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Background: Severe forms of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) were found among 6 - 10% of all COVID-19 patients. Acute respiratory distress syndrome ARDS is non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema manifested by the rapid development of shortness of breath, tachypnea, and hypoxemia. Patients’ outcomes after critical care for COVID-19 have not been adequately documented in this low-resource environment, despite advocacy for prevention and response measures in low- and middle-income countries.

Objectives: To highlight the rate of severe illness among COVID-19 patients and its associated factors in Al-Imam Ali Hospital, Baghdad-Iraq 2021.

Patients and Methods: A descriptive cross

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluation of Risk Management practices and their relationship to the Entrepreneur behavior of managers in insurance companies: applied research
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The objective of the research is to evaluate the risk management practices of the variables (risk management structure, risk management methods, key components of risk management) and their relation to the principled behavior of managers behavior(innovation, proactive, risk acceptance) By adopting the questionnaire as a main tool in collecting data from managers in the National and raq insurance companies of (50) officials Department manager, department administrator, unit administrator, and analyzed their answers using the SPSS In calculating arithmetic mean, standard deviation, percentage weight and simple correlation coefficient. The most prominent conclusions were:1.There is a positive trend in the sample in both companies and a high

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Lack of Association of the HMGA1 Gene Variants with Metabolic Syndrome Risk and Response to Oral Anti-Diabetic Drugs
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Background: Metabolic syndrome (Mets) is partially heritable. High mobility group AT-hook1 (HMGA1), an architectural transcription factor, affects the homeostasis of glucose. The marked inter-individual differences between T

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 26 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Estimating the Reliability Function for Transmuted Pareto Distribution Using Simulation
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     In this work, the methods (Moments, Modified Moments, L-Moments, Percentile, Rank Set sampling and Maximum Likelihood) were used to estimate the reliability function and the two parameters of the Transmuted Pareto (TP) distribution. We use simulation to generate the required data from three cases this indicates  sample size , and it replicates  for the real value for parameters, for reliability times values  we take .

Results were compared by using mean square error (MSE), the result appears as follows :

The best methods are Modified Moments, Maximum likelihood and L-Moments in first case, second case and third case respectively.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
WiMax Network Design and Simulation for Middle Technical University Campus Using OPNET Modeler
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     This study aims to build a wireless computer network for a large company or university to enhance mobility and allow university users to stay connected at any time or place, which is achieved by applying the Universal Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMax) technology. WiMax is based on the 802.16 sets of standards and has the most efficient and advanced hardware capabilities to meet the demands of teachers and students to browse the web or download files quickly. OPNET Modeler version 14.5 was used to determine the quality of service parameters of WiMax.

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Tree regression (TR), and Negative binomial regression (NBR) by Using Simulation.
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            In this paper, the process of comparison between the tree regression model and the negative binomial regression. As these models included two types of statistical methods represented by the first type "non parameter statistic" which is the tree regression that aims to divide the data set into subgroups, and the second type is the "parameter statistic" of negative binomial regression, which is usually used when dealing with medical data, especially when dealing with large sample sizes. Comparison of these methods according to the average mean squares error (MSE) and using the simulation of the experiment and taking different sample

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Control Program for Hydropower Operation Based on Minimizing the Principal Stress Values on the Dam Body: Mosul Dam Case Study
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This study examines the vibrations produced by hydropower operations to improve embankment dam safety. This study consists of two parts: In the first part, ANSYS-CFX was used to generate a three-dimensional (3-D) finite volume (FV) model to simulate a vertical Francis turbine unit in the Mosul hydropower plant. The pressure pattern result of the turbine model was transformed into the dam body to show how the turbine unit's operation affects the dam's stability. The upstream reservoir conditions, various flow rates, and fully open inlet gates were considered. In the second part of this study, a 3-D FE Mosul dam model was simulated using an ANSYS program. The operational turbine model's water pressure pattern is conveyed t

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Monte Carlo Simulation of the Effective Solid Angle and the HPGe Response to Different Mono-Energetic Protons from Extended Source
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A program using Mont Carlo techniques has been written to calculate the effective solid angle of the detection system and simulate the response of the HPGe to mono-energetic protons from an extend source. It has been found that the fraction of the protons which leave through the cylindrical surface and deposit only part of their kinetic energy in the crystal increases with proton energy and the consequent increase in their range.

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Simulation of the Entrance to the Escape of the Flood Branching from the Diyala River
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The Diyala River is considered the third most important river in Iraq. However, in the recent period, Diyala Governorate has been subject to several floods. This study aims to simulate an efficient labyrinth weir at the flood escape entrance branching from the Diyala River to reach the best entrance through which the flood waves can pass safely. The discharge coefficient was calculated laboratory for five types of trapezoidal side labyrinth weirs with different sidewall angles. Results showed that the coefficient discharge for the trapezoidal labyrinth side weir with an angle of the sidewall is 75ᵒ and has a discharge coefficient greater than the rest of the labyrinth side weirs. The second part of this study is valida

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