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Tectonic activation and the risk of Ilisu Dam collapse to Iraq through modelling and simulation using HEC-RAS
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Abstract<p>Floods caused by dam failures can cause huge losses of life and property, especially in estuarine areas and valleys. In spite of all the capabilities and great improvements reached by man in the construction of dams and their structures, they will remain helpless before the powerful forces of nature, especially those related to tectonic activation, and the occurrence of earthquakes of different intensities.</p><p>The region extending from the Ilisu Dam in Turkey to the Mosul Dam in Iraq was chosen as an area for this study, and the HEC-RAS application was used to simulate the collapse of the Ilisu Dam due to a major earthquake, to know the magnitude of the risks and losses that could result from this. The Ilisu Dam was built very close to a highly tectonically active fault system, particularly the East Anatolian Fault (EAF), which is one of the largest tectonically active faults in the world with a length of 500 km. This region has witnessed past and present earthquakes of high magnitude (M > 7), especially in the EAF, so the construction of the Ilisu Dam near the EAF fault system is of great concern, as it was built in a basin with very complex seismic activity and geology.</p><p>Using the HEC-RAS simulation application, the study found that the flood resulting from the collapse of the Ilisu Dam would reach the edges of the Mosul Dam Lake in just 13 h. With a flow of more than 100,000 m<sup>3</sup>/s, more than 10 billion m3 of water will flow into the Mosul Dam Lake within four days of the disaster. This will lead to the collapse of the Mosul Dam and direct the flood wave of the collapse of these dams towards Baghdad through Mosul, Tikrit, and Samarra. This could pose risks to all Iraqi cities located within the Iraqi sedimentary plain (Mesopotamia), from south of the Mosul Dam up to Basra, in a scenario similar to Noah’s Flood.</p>
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Selection of the initial value of the time series generating the first-order self-regression model in simulation modeAnd their impact on the accuracy of the model
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In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method  and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model  first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.

                  

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Annals Of Tropical Medicine And Public Health
Molecular Detection of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus Genotypes from Cervical Lesions in Baghdad
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Objective Using two complementary techniques of virus detection human papillomavirus (HPV)[capture of hybrids (CH) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)], relate the cytological study and/or cervical biopsy with high-risk HPV (HPV-HR) genotypes presence, as well as relating their viral load (VL). Methods About 272 women, who presented most cell alterations compatible with lesions cervical HPV, which has been detected in all high risk by the CH method and HPV genotype detection by PCR. Results In 22% of the patients it was not detected HPV DNA. Genotype 16 and/or 18 was prevalent and was found in 33% of the 212 women studied, meanwhile, mixed infections were found by several genotypes in 25%. In as for the histological lesions found, in 61 pat

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Evaluation Of Risk Factors In Perforated Acute Appendicitis In Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital
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Background: Appendectomy is still one of the most commonly performed emergency surgical procedures worldwide.Avoiding delays in the diagnosis in these patients may play a role in reducing observed morbidity.Aim of study:To analyze the clinico-pathological profile and outcomes of patients undergoing emergency appendectomies to determine risk factors influencingcomplicaions.Type of the study: A prospective analytic studyPatients and Methods: The study involves 108 patients underwent emergency appendectomies at Al-kindy teaching hospital from April 2014 to March 2015. Appendicitis was categorized into two groups perforated andnonperforatedappendicities. A comparison between them was made in regard to Gender, Age, clinical presentation, inve

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
mtDNA Haplogroup M5 Associated with Risk of Colorectal Cancer in South India Population
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The life on earth is driven by energy, supplied by the tiny organelles of the cell called mitochondria and they are usually stated as the powerhouses of the cell.  In population genetics, Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is used extensively to categorize individuals or populations.  The mutation sites observed in human mtDNA by comparing with the reference sequence (rCRS) are termed into definite human mtDNA haplogroups. Previous studies showed that mtDNA specific haplogroups and polymorphisms were established to be linked with various human diseases, including cancer in numerous populations. Furthermore, it is also known that several mitochondrial DNA polymorphisms are implicated in enhanced production of Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 07 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Systems Science And Mathematical Sciences
SCREENING TESTS FOR DISEASE RISK HAPLOTYPE SEGMENTS IN GENOME BY USE OF PERMUTATION
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The haplotype association analysis has been proposed to capture the collective behavior of sets of variants by testing the association of each set instead of individual variants with the disease.Such an analysis typically involves a list of unphased multiple-locus genotypes with potentially sparse frequencies in cases and controls.It starts with inferring haplotypes from genotypes followed by a haplotype co-classification and marginal screening for disease-associated haplotypes.Unfortunately,phasing uncertainty may have a strong effects on the haplotype co-classification and therefore on the accuracy of predicting risk haplotypes.Here,to address the issue,we propose an alternative approach:In Stage 1,we select potential risk genotypes inste

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 18 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessing Risk Factors of Pneumonia among Adults at Ibn-Sina in Mosul City
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Objectives: the aim of the study to assess the most common risk factors of pneumonia at adult and find the
socio-demographic characteristics of sample.
Methodology: the study performed at Ibn-Sina teaching hospital (intensive care unit) and out patient in the same
hospital period of (15 ) November (2006) till (1ا٤) February (2007).The sample of the study includes (65)
patients with pneumonia for different underlying causes who were attending Ibn-Sina teaching hospital age
range (59-68) years is the highest level and is the most common risk factor for pneumonia.
Results: the results of the study most patients' hospital acquired-pneumonia from contamination during
administration to hospital but community acquired-pne

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Studying and analysis effect level of the Government expenditure and Gross Domestic product in size of the expenditure on the higher education in Iraq (1995 – 2009)
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The education, especially higher education, is an essentially factor in the progress of any society, if we consider the higher education, represents the top  of  the education`s  pyramid which take part in developing the human  resources and provide the human staff to raise the productive efficiency, and improve the social , economic level                                  

In order to face the increasing importance of higher education, great capabilities and expenditures must be available in a continous way, such expe

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Risk Analysis of Projects Accordance with the Professional Project Management System: A case- Study Mansur Construction Contracting Company here
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The research aims to identify the risks faced by projects and work on the administration, such as those risks by using professional Project Management System (Project Management Professional) by identifying those risks and their impact on the objectives of the project, if they occur and to provide appropriate responses to Ha.autam search application on the draft Law Faculty port by the General Mansour Construction Contracting company has been using a method personal interview with the heads of departments and project managers in the Al-Mansour and tools descriptive and quantitative analysis as was used (likelihood and impact of risk analysis, Ai_kaoa scheme Sbb- effect, analysis of probability and impact, risk matrix (probability

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Evaluation the Risk Factors that are Associated with Osteoporosis in Post Kidney Transplantation in a Sample of Iraqi Patients
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Renal transplantation is a principal treatment option for end-stage kidney failure. Bone loss and fracture are serious complication of kidney transplantation, associated with morbidity and mortality. The pathogenesis of post transplantation bone loss is multifactorial and complex

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of Raw Water Turbidity at the Intakes of the Water Treatment Plants along Tigris River in Baghdad, Iraq using Frequency Analysis
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Different frequency distributions models were fitted to the monthly data of raw water Turbidity at water treatment plants (WTPs) along Tigris River in Baghdad. Eight water treatment plants in Baghdad were selected, with raw water turbidity data for the period (2008-2014). The frequency distribution models used in this study are the Normal, Log-normal, Weibull, Exponential and two parameters Gamma type. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. The data for years (2008-2011) were used for building the models. The best fitted distributions were Log-Normal (LN) for Al-Karkh, Al-Wathbah, Al-Qadisiya, Al- Dawrah and, Al-Rashid WTPs. Gamma distribution fitted well for East Tigris and Al-Karamah WTPs. As for Al-

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