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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 09 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Zirconium Silicate Nanopowder Reinforcement on Some Mechanical and Physical Properties of Heat Cured Poly (Methyl Methacrylate) Denture Base Materials
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Background: Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) has relatively unsatisfactory mechanical properties such as low flexural strength and impact strength also dimensional instability. Material and method: Zirconium silicate nanoparticles were coated with a layer of trimethoxysilylpropylmethacrylate (TMSPM) before sonication in monomer (MMA) with the percentages 1% and 1.5% by weight then mixed with powder using conventional procedure, (150) samples were prepared and divided into three groups, each group consisted of (50) samples, the first group prepared from PMMA without addition (control), another group with the addition of 1% wt Zrsio4 nanoparticles (experimental) and the third one with 1.5% wt Zrsio4 nanoparticles (experimental). Each group

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Metal Complexes of Multidentate N<sub>2</sub>S<sub>2</sub> Heterocyclic Schiff-base Ligands;Formation, Structural Characterisation and Biological Activity
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Abstract<p>The synthesis of ligands with N<sub>2</sub>S<sub>2</sub> donor sets that include imine, an amide, thioether, thiolate moieties and their metal complexes were achieved. The new Schiff-base ligands; N-(2-((2,4-diphenyl-3-azabicyclo[3.3.1]nonan-9-ylidene)amino)ethyl)-2-((2-mercaptoethyl)thio)-acetamide (H<sub>2</sub>L<sup>1</sup>) and N-(2-((2,4-di-p-tolyl-3-azabicyclo[3.3.1]nonan-9-ylidene)amino)ethyl)-2-((2-mercaptoethyl)thio) acetamide (H2L<sup>2</sup>) were obtained from the reaction of amine precursors with 1,4-dithian-2-one in the presence of triethylamine as a base in the CHCl3 medium. Complexes of the general formula K<sub>2<</sub></p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Role of School Administration in Achieving Educational and Learning Goals as Seen by Educational Supervisors in the Stage of Basic Education
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This study aimed to identify the role of school administration in achieving educational and learning goals from the point of view of educational supervisors in the stage of basic education. The descriptive method was adopted. As for the sample size, it has reached (59) educational supervisors. A questionnaire consisting of 29 paragraphs divided into four areas was used. The data were statistically analyzed on the Chi-square test, the percentage, and the mono-variance analysis. The result showed that the school administration contributes to achieving educational goals. It also works to solve problems in democratic ways, and in modern methods, there are differences in the criteria for choosing the headmaster. The study recommended that sch

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Maced J Med Sci.
Past Myocardial Infarctions and Gender Predict the LVEF Regardless of the Status of Coronary Collaterals: An AI-Informed Research. Open Access Maced …
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BACKGROUND: The degree of the development of coronary collaterals is long considered an alternate–that is, a collateral–source of blood supply to an area of the myocardium threatened with vascular ischemia or insufficiency. Hence, the coronary collaterals are beneficial but can also promote harmful (adverse) effects. For instance, the coronary steal effect during the myocardial hyperemia phase and that of restenosis following coronary angioplasty.

Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Strategic direction in Strategic Reputation and its impact on Competitive Compressions Survey study in mobile communications companies in Iraq
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Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Concept Maps in Academic Achievement among Family Education Students in the Subject of the Art of Elegance and Fashion
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the effectiveness of concept maps in the academic achievement of the art of elegance and fashion for third vocational students. The current research is a quasi-experimental one. The research sample consisted of (74) female students in Al-Saydiyah secondary school for girls, they were divided into two groups: the experimental group and the control group. The following hypothesis was developed: There are no statistically significant differences at the level (0.05) between the average scores of the students who studied the subject using concept maps and the average scores of the students who studied the subject in the traditional method in the post-achievement test. The

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Study The Effect of Annealing on Structural and Optical Properties of Indium Selenide (InSe) Thin Films Prepared by Vacuum Thermal Evaporation Technique
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Abstract<p>In this work, InSe thin films were deposited on glass substrates by thermal evaporation technique with a deposit rate of (2.5∓0.2) nm/sec. The thickness of the films was around (300∓10) nm, and the thin films were annealed at (100, 200 and 300)°C. The structural, morphology, and optical properties of Indium selenide thin films were studied using X-ray diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscope and UV–Visible spectrometry respectively. X-ray diffraction analyses showed that the as deposited thin films have amorphous structures. At annealing temperature of 100°C and 200°C, the films show enhanced crystalline nature, but at 300°C the film shows a polycrystalline structure with Rhombohedral phas</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 28 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Changes in Serum Levels of Tumor Necrosis Factor-Alpha and Antioxidant status in Different Stages of Malignant Prostate Cancer Patients in Iraq
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Chronic inflammation can induce proliferative events and posttranslational DNA modifications in prostate tissue through oxidative stress. The present study was designed to evaluate the changes in serum levels of TNF-α, malomdialdehyde (MDA) and total antioxidant status (TAS) patients with different stages of malignant prostatic cancer (PCa) and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). One hundred males (age range of 58-72 years) with different stages of malignant PCa were recruited from the Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine Teaching Hospital in Baghdad during the period from September 2010 to April 2011. The patients were categorized according to the 4 disease stages (I, II, III, and IV); 25 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH)

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Theoretical Calculations of the Cross-sections for (n,α) and (n,xα) reactions on the Structural Material for Fusion Reactor 46-50Ti
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The biggest problem of structural materials for fusion reactor is the damage caused by the fusion product neutrons to the structural material. If this problem is overcomed, an important milestone will be left behind in fusion energy. One of the important problems of the structural material is that nuclei forming the structural material interacting with fusion neutrons are transmuted to stable or radioactive nuclei via (n, x) (x; alpha, proton, gamma etc.) reactions. In particular, the concentration of helium gas in the structural material increases through deuteron- tritium (D-T) and (n, α) reactions, and this increase significantly changes the microstructure and the properties of the structural materials. T

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 22 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Oral &dental Research
The Antibacterial Effect of Tea Tree Oil, Clove Oil and 3% Sodium Hypochlorite against Enterococcus faecalis in Endodontics: An in vitro Study
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Irrigation has significant role in endodontic treatment, many types of antimicrobial irrigation solutions have been used, but due to the ineffectiveness, safety concerns and side effects of this irrigation, the herbal alternatives for endodontic irrigants might be beneficial. Objectives This study compared the in vitro effectiveness of tea tree oil and clove oil as possible irrigants in endodontics against Enterococcus faecalis in comparison with 3% Sodium hypochlorite. Materials and Methods E. faecalis was isolated from patients in need for endodontic treatment; VITEK was employed for E. faecalis isolate conformation. Muller Hinton agar was prepared with 100μl of freshly prepared suspension of E.faecalis. Wells of 6mm diameter and 4mm dep

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