The concept of deficit in public budget becomes a chronic economic phenomenon in most of the world, whether the advanced countries or developing countries. Despite the difference in the visions of the economic schools to accept or reject the deficit in public budget but the opinion that prevailed is the necessity of the state to reduce the public spending which led to a continuous deficits in the public budget which consequently increased the government borrowing ,increase income taxes and wealth, consequently this weakened the in motivation in private investment which contributed to the increase of in factionary stagnation , so that governments have to cover the lack of local funding sources which become difficult to be equal to increase and continue in public spending ,hauling problem funding from the main problems faced by state developing especially lraq ,what forced to the direction to the loans external which are often conditioned conditions by political and economic complicated ,hence it has focused find the estimation and analysis of relationship between the deficit in budget public and external debt by duration (1990-2016) as a result of the difficult circumstances experienced by lraq during the period ,the balance was the balance has been exhausted highest level of the study of disability as a result of the continuous increase in public spending ,which resulted in an increase in external debt as a source of funding this deficit ,and in the framework of rating this relationship has reached researcher to the presence of relationship equilibrium long –term between the deficit in budget public and external debt.
The survival analysis is one of the modern methods of analysis that is based on the fact that the dependent variable represents time until the event concerned in the study. There are many survival models that deal with the impact of explanatory factors on the likelihood of survival, including the models proposed by the world, David Cox, one of the most important and common models of survival, where it consists of two functions, one of which is a parametric function that does not depend on the survival time and the other a nonparametric function that depends on times of survival, which the Cox model is defined as a semi parametric model, The set of parametric models that depend on the time-to-event distribution parameters such as
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