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Network Traffic Prediction Based on Time Series Modeling
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    Predicting the network traffic of web pages is one of the areas that has increased focus in recent years. Modeling traffic helps find strategies for distributing network loads, identifying user behaviors and malicious traffic, and predicting future trends. Many statistical and intelligent methods have been studied to predict web traffic using time series of network traffic. In this paper, the use of machine learning algorithms to model Wikipedia traffic using Google's time series dataset is studied. Two data sets were used for time series, data generalization, building a set of machine learning models (XGboost, Logistic Regression, Linear Regression, and Random Forest), and comparing the performance of the models using (SMAPE) and (MAPE). The results showed the possibility of modeling the network traffic time series and that the performance of the linear regression model is the best compared to the rest of the models for both series.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Network Traffic Prediction Based on Boosting Learning
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Classification of network traffic is an important topic for network management, traffic routing, safe traffic discrimination, and better service delivery. Traffic examination is the entire process of examining traffic data, from intercepting traffic data to discovering patterns, relationships, misconfigurations, and anomalies in a network. Between them, traffic classification is a sub-domain of this field, the purpose of which is to classify network traffic into predefined classes such as usual or abnormal traffic and application type. Most Internet applications encrypt data during traffic, and classifying encrypted data during traffic is not possible with traditional methods. Statistical and intelligence methods can find and model traff

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Development prediction algorithm of vehicle travel time based traffic data
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This work bases on encouraging a generous and conceivable estimation for modified an algorithm for vehicle travel times on a highway from the eliminated traffic information using set aside camera image groupings. The strategy for the assessment of vehicle travel times relies upon the distinctive verification of traffic state. The particular vehicle velocities are gotten from acknowledged vehicle positions in two persistent images by working out the distance covered all through elapsed past time doing mollification between the removed traffic flow data and cultivating a plan to unequivocally predict vehicle travel times. Erbil road data base is used to recognize road locales around road segments which are projected into the commended camera

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Optimized Artificial Neural network models to time series
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        Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagn

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 24 2021
Journal Name
Ieee Access
Smart IoT Network Based Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network With Element-Wise Prediction System
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An Intelligent Internet of Things network based on an Artificial Intelligent System, can substantially control and reduce the congestion effects in the network. In this paper, an artificial intelligent system is proposed for eliminating the congestion effects in traffic load in an Intelligent Internet of Things network based on a deep learning Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network with a modified Element-wise Attention Gate. The invisible layer of the modified Element-wise Attention Gate structure has self-feedback to increase its long short-term memory. The artificial intelligent system is implemented for next step ahead traffic estimation and clustering the network. In the proposed architecture, each sensing node is adaptive and able to

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Mixing ARMA Models with EGARCH Models and Using it in Modeling and Analyzing the Time Series of Temperature
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In this article our goal is mixing ARMA models with EGARCH models and composing a mixed model ARMA(R,M)-EGARCH(Q,P) with two steps, the first step includes modeling the data series by using EGARCH model alone interspersed with steps of detecting the heteroscedasticity effect and estimating  the model's parameters and check the adequacy of the model. Also we are predicting the conditional variance and verifying it's convergence to the unconditional variance value. The second step includes mixing ARMA with EGARCH and using the mixed (composite) model in modeling time series data and predict future values then asses the prediction ability of the proposed model by using prediction error criterions.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 23 2011
Journal Name
International Journal Of The Physical Sciences
Fast prediction of power transfer stability index based on radial basis function neural network
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Publication Date
Tue Apr 20 2021
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Wavelet Analysis For Sunspot Time Series
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Abstract

In this research we study the wavelet characteristics for the important time series known as Sunspot, on the aim of verifying the periodogram that other researchers had reached by the spectral transform, and noticing the variation in the period length on one side and the shifting on another.

A continuous wavelet analysis is done for this series and the periodogram in it is marked primarily. for more accuracy, the series is partitioned to its the approximate and the details components to five levels, filtering these components by using fixed threshold on one time and independent threshold on another, finding the noise series which represents the difference between

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Time Series Analysis of Baghdad Rainfall Using ARIMA Method
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Monthly rainfall data of Baghdad meteorological station were taken to study the time behavior of these data series. Significant fluctuation,very slight increasing trend and significant seasonality were noticed. Several ARIMA models were tested and the best one were checked for the adequacy. It is found that the SEASONAL ARIMA model of the orders SARIMA(2,1,3)x(0,1,1) is the best model where the residual of this model exhibits white noise property, uncorrelateness and they are normally distributed. According to this model, rainfall forecast for four years was also achieved and showing similar trend and extent of the original data.

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