Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete hazard function and the time-dependent parameters, two estimation methods have been used that depend on the Bayes method according to dynamic modeling: the Maximum A Posterior method (MAP) This method was done using numerical methods represented by a Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation maximization algorithm (EM), the other method is represented by the Hybrid Markov Chains Monte Carlo (HMCMC) method using the Metropolis Hasting algorithm (MH) and Gypsum sampling (GS). It was concluded that survival analysis by descretization the data into a set of intervals is more flexible and fluid, as this allows analyzing risks and diagnosing impacts that vary over time. The study was applied in the survival analysis on dialysis until either death occurred due to kidney failure or the competing event, represented by kidney transplantation. The most important variables affecting the patient’s cessation of dialysis were also identified for both events in this research.
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model's application is widely increased for wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) variables prediction and forecasting which can enable the operators to take appropriate action and maintaining the norms. It is much easier modeling tool for dealing with complex nature WWTP modeling comparing with other traditional mathematical models. ANN technique significance has been considered at present study for the prediction of sequencing batch reactor (SBR) performance based on effluent's (BOD5/COD) ratio after collecting the required historical daily SBR data for two years operation (2015-2016) from Baghdad Mayoralty and Al-Rustamiya WWTP office, Iraq. The prediction was gotten by the application of a feed-forwa
... Show MoreIn this model, we use the C++ programming language to develop a program that calculates the atmospheric earth model from the surface to 250 kilometers. The balance forces theory is used to derive the pressure equation. The hydrostatic equation is utilized to calculate these parameters analytically. Variations of the parameters with altitude (density, pressure, temperature, and molecular weight) are investigated intensively. The equations for gravitational acceleration, sound speed, and scale height are also obtained. This model is used to investigate the effects of the earth's atmosphere on the space shuttle and the moving bodies inside it.
Urban land uses of all kinds are the constituent elements of the urban spatial structure. Because of the influence of economic and social factors, cities in general are characterized by the dynamic state of their elements over time. Urban functions occur in a certain way with different spatial patterns. Hence, urban planners and the relevant urban management teams should understand the future spatial pattern of these changes by resorting to quantitative models in spatial planning. This is to ensure that future predictions are made with a high level of accuracy so that appropriate strategies can be used to address the problems arising from such changes. The Markov chain method is one of the quantitative models used in spatial planning to ana
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In this study the new azo compounds (3compounds) for nitrogen bases (Adenine and Cytosine) are synthesized through two reaction steps (formation of diazonium salt and coupling reaction). The compounds have been characterized by FTIR, melting point, and ultra-violate (UV) spectra. All synthesized compounds have been estimated in vitro for their antimicrobial activities against two species of bacteria(E.coli, S.aureus)and one kind of fungi ( Aspergillus flavus) .The results show that these compounds have very good antibacterial and antifungal activities especially compounds 1 and 3.To study the effect of these compounds were making some physiological tests on rats are made ,the results of hematological study showed decreasing level of
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Probiotic bacteria using in commercially produced foods are at most members of the genera Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium. This research was aimed to study the antimicrobial effect of lactobacillus bacteria as probiotic against some pathogenic bacteria, strains of lactobacillus bacteria were isolated from two types of yoghurt in Baquba city, Iraq . Total of 60 yoghurt samples from 2 origins (30 locally and 30 commercial produced yoghurt) were used to isolate probiotic bacteria which were identified phenotypically and biochemically. 30 (100%) of locally produced yoghurt samples include with probiotic bacteria while 12 (40%) commercially types of yoghurt samples were contained with probiotic, the method of modi
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Solar module operating temperature is the second major factor affects the performance of solar photovoltaic panels after the amount of solar radiation. This paper presents a performance comparison of mono-crystalline Silicon (mc-Si), poly-crystalline Silicon (pc-Si), amorphous Silicon (a-Si) and Cupper Indium Gallium di-selenide (CIGS) photovoltaic technologies under Climate Conditions of Baghdad city. Temperature influence on the solar modules electric output parameters was investigated experimentally and their temperature coefficients was calculated. These temperature coefficients are important for all systems design and sizing. The experimental results revealed that the pc-Si module showed a decrease in open circuit v
... Show MoreEnvironmental pollutions and resources depletion motivates scientific research to innovate technologies for sustainable productive systems. To develop gas sensing substance with optimized performance a perovskite compound of HoxFe1-x FeO3 (where x= 0, 0.01, 0.03 and 0.05) were prepared by standard solid state reaction technique. The crystal structure was studied by XRD, which confirmed the formation of polycrystalline orthorhombic structure with space group Pbnm type perovskite. The preferred crystal growth of the main peak was (211). The structural parameters were also calculated and it was found that the lattice constants and particle size increased with the Ho doping ratio. The electrical properties were studied using the Hall effect,
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المستخلـص
تم في هذا البحث دراسة الطرائق اللامعلمية الرتيبة لتقدير دالة الأنحدار اللامعلمي، ومعالجة القيم الشاذة الموجودة في دالة الأنحدار اللامعلمي لجعل الدالة رتيبة (متزايدة أو متناقصة).
لذا سنقوم أولاً بتقدير دالة الأنحدار اللامعلمي بإستخدام ممهد Kernel ومن ثم تطبيق الطرائق الرتيبة لجعل الدالة متزايدة إذ سنتناول ثلاث طرائق للتقدير:-
1- طريقة ste
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Equilibrium Moisture sorption isotherms are very important in drying and storage analysis. Experimental moisture equilibrium data (adsorption and desorption) of Aspirin were determined using the static method of saturated salt solutions and that by exposing the material to different conditions of temperatures and water activities. Three different temperatures (25, 30, 40Cº) and water activities in the range of (6.3- 83.6%) were used. The results showed that the equilibrium moisture content increased with the increase in water activity at any temperature and decreased with temperature increase at constant water activity. The water activity increases with increasing in temperature when moisture content was kept constant. The sorption isot
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Background: Automobile spray painting is considered an occupation with a high risk of respiratory impairment and asthma. Exposure to organic solvents used for spraying might be of high risk for development of dysfunction in other organs.
Objective: The study was designed to evaluate the pulmonary and hepatic toxicity due to exposure of automobile painters to organic solvents in work places within the Baghdad governorate area.
Methods: Thirty cross sectional selected male workers employed in automobile body paint shops in two industrial areas within Baghdad city (Al-Sheikh Omar and Al-Rasheed camp regions) were recruited to the study during the period from March to May 2012. Thirty non-exposed students and employees in the college o