FORECASTING PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF BREAD WHEAT IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD 2007-2016 USING ARIMA MODEL

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20/10/2014 12:12 PM

FORECASTING PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF BREAD WHEAT IN IRAQ FOR THE PERIOD 2007-2016 USING ARIMA MODEL


 
Aida F. Ahmed
Mohamed .A.Ibrahem
Department of Dept. of Agric. Econ. - Coll. Of Agric - Univ. of Bagdad


ABSTRACT


Bread Wheat is considered one of the most important crop which plays an important role in Iraqi economy. The aim of research was to predict the quantities produced and consumed of this crop for the period 2007-2016 by using (ARIMA)model for economic prediction it also uses B&G methodology which rests on the amalgamation between autoregressive models and moving average MA .This was applied for times series data of quantities produced and consumed by using statistical program (MINITAB).It was very difficult to determine a suitable model for production due to the fact that agricultural production is affected by many factors which cause its fluctuation and instability in great extent .As result this work needed many attempts until the model ARIMA(1,1,0)was chosen which satisfied all statistical tests .The model explains that wheat production is affected by production lagged for one year .This was assured by many previous researches .The expected production quantity for year 2016 is 2600.6 thousand tons while the expected quantity of consumption for the same year 3195.7 thousand tons .This indicates the existence of food gap for wheat .This gap cloud be bridged through price support and subsidies for product and input price to induce production to increase production in addition to follow same policies which could rationalize consumption of this crop .Government must intervene in price formation for bread wheat to support its price through a clear plan which is consistent with the existed potentialities and potentialities ,otherwise the results of such models remain only indicators for designing such policies



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